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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (69318)	12/9/2010 1:08:16 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218227

PISA measures countries with state-owned education systems against each other. What they don't know is that Brazil is privatized education system. Brazil educated kids come from privatized education systems while the poor go to publci school system. Experiment private school Postivo is a company that had even its own computer factory (bought this year by China's Lenovo.) PISA is akin to Singapore, HK and Finland national football teams taking on the Matsubara (3rd division in Parana state), win the competition and declaring they are best football players in the world!

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (69318)	12/9/2010 1:09:09 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218227

Still about PISA. If a dropout is like me imagine the ones who went to school. ROTFLMAO!!!!!

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (69318)	12/9/2010 1:26:33 AM
From: abuelita	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218227

this is kinda interesting too: Message 27011613 i'm not too unhappy where canada sits altho i'd prefer we were lumped in with hong kong, korea, sweden, switzerland.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (69318)	12/9/2010 7:56:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 218227

Just in in-tray per greed n fear · Obama’s tax plan announced this week, including the anticipated extension of the Bush tax cuts, will serve to promote further growing cyclical optimism on the US. Meanwhile, renewed fiscal stimulus does not mean that Billyboy will step back from QE2. GREED & fear’s view remains that the deflationary trend remains dominant in the US. · The ECB has enabled a certain degree of renewed calm in Euroland this week by resuming its purchases of junk Euroland government bonds and extending its “emergency” liquidity support programme until at least 12 April 2011. Still this is clearly just easing liquidity stresses and has only served to delay the day when fundamental decisions will have to be taken. · The most likely end game for GREED & fear remains some degree of acceptance of collective fiscal responsibility, which includes Germany, and some related acknowledgment of the need for debt restructuring. But this is only likely to happen after renewed market turmoil forces such decisions. · There is no compelling evidence that the Chinese macro story is about to be hit by an outbreak of 1970s style inflation. The view of the authorities is that headline CPI should peak at about 5% by the middle of next year at the latest, and decline back to below 4% in the second half of 2011 as the pressure from food prices goes out of the system. · It is a major assumption to believe that China is about to diverge wildly from its long established pattern of productivity-driven disinflationary growth. Far more likely is the pattern where the trend level of CPI inflation rises moderately on the back of a structural pick up in the share of wealth generation taken by labour in the form of higher wages. This is all part of the hoped for move to a more consumption driven economy, a trend which would surely be totally benign. · If the PRC is not worrying about inflationary pressures surging sharply to the upside as measured in the official CPI data, the authorities do want to appear to be “prudent” on monetary policy. This is why the loan growth quota in 2011 is likely to be in the Rmb6.5-7tn range, down from this year’s official Rmb7.5tn figure. Further moves in reserve requirements and interest rates can also not be ruled out. · There will also be a continuing desire to rein in residential property prices, while this year has seen the beginning of what is likely to be at least a five-year programme accelerating development of social housing. This is good news for producers of steel and cement, while developers who want to get access to desirable land will need to show they have done their bit constructing social housing. · A far more opaque issue in China is the real level of credit growth. Adjusted for the growing use of higher yielding securitised products sold by banks and trust companies and the manipulation of discounted bills, credit growth has seemingly not slowed this year from the frantic pace seen in 2009 despite the slowdown in official bank lending. · The increasingly entrepreneurial non-banking financial sector in China seems to have expanded as a consequence of the liquidity surge triggered by the post-Lehman expansion in lending; as well as increased private sector demand for credit combined with depositors’ appetite for yield. This raises the issue whether this phenomenon can be managed by the authorities. · A failure to bring the non-banking financial sector under control could ultimately serve as the trigger for the over-investment bust that many have been predicting for so long in China. This is because it would mean the authorities were losing control of the credit cycle, meaning the banking system was less “command economy-like” and therefore more vulnerable to a classic capitalist over-investment bust. · Beijing’s obsession with the asset bubble risk is reflected in the continuing focus on residential property prices. On that point nobody is expecting any easing of policy towards that sector. Rather if the official data shows property prices rising by more than 1% a month, then there will be growing expectation of more policy action. · The issue of the fast developing non-banking financial sector needs to be watched closely; most particularly how the regulators respond to it since any aggressive crack down will have negative market implications. · The Reserve Bank of Australia is now specifically targeting home prices in its conduct of monetary policy. With the average mortgage rate at 7.8% or 500bp above the inflation rate and with most mortgages floating rate, the Aussie housing market is going to be ultra sensitive to monetary policy. The RBA will respond aggressively and cut rates if the housing market really weakens in a significant manner. · An investment in Chinese online-offline travel company Ctrip will be introduced in the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio to replace the investment in China Mobile. The investment in Yahoo Japan in the Japanese long-only portfolio will be reduced by one percentage point with the money added to the existing investment in Softbank. Please consider the environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.