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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (70048)	12/29/2010 12:02:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218255

Excellent vid. Saw it before. On china riddle, just think USA circa 18xx any time post civil war, migration and immigration and all. Think of china as urban coastal china and rural inland china. Think rural inland about to ramp per urban coastal, resulting in 10x in next 25 years as in last 25 years. Copper may become a precious metal ;0) Keep shorting puts on FCX is my plan, cloud ATM.

To: carranza2 who wrote (70048)	12/29/2010 5:43:53 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218255

I cut Germany to size and C2 disagreed. Two years ago I saw Europe minnows bound to suffer. I stand by my stated position: Europe is going to the dogs and Germany is going too. Have a look at the postings to refresh your memory. Message 24491837 Message 24492499 Message 24493001

To: carranza2 who wrote (70048)	12/29/2010 2:19:35 PM
From: prosperous	Respond to of 218255

The following book has an excellent description on economic growth in China over the years and how business is done there along with changes in social fabric that brought it along. Its also available as audio book (I got from my local library). Worth a look to understand the underpinnings of economic engine. amazon.com

To: carranza2 who wrote (70048)	12/29/2010 5:25:47 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218255

There is always liquidity we can count on even if we lost track of the count The coming bailouts of of the municipalities should prove a bounty for gold faithful. The minute team USA bails out its states and municipalities, the rest of the world can then do same to match, at rate of at least 1:1. Just in in-tray On Dec 30, 2010, at 12:20 AM, H wrote: Individual investors and mutual fund managers are of one mind: the stock market can only go higher. Now meeting/ exceeding the records in bullish consensus found at only a small handful of previous occasions. Not to worry though - it will be different this time. :) Actually, it really is different in one major respect, namely the Fed's extreme monetary pumping - Hussman has a reasonably good take on that here: hussmanfunds.com Although he seems to miss a not unimportant point when he says: 'On the "liquidity" front, the additional reserves have simply added to an existing pile of well over a trillion dollars of idle reserve balances in the banking system.' This is simply no longer true - see the attached chart of excess reserves held by commercial banks at the Fed. These reserves have lately declined. Given that lending to the private sector remains subdued, the conclusion is that banks have begun to use some of their excess reserves to buy securities. In short, although the Fed does not monetize government debt directly by buying notes from the treasury (it only buys already existing bonds from current bond holders, i.e., it is monetizing the deficits of the past), the banks in turn appear to be using the proceeds from coupon passes to buy more treasury debt for their own securities portfolios. In short, the slowdown/decline in private sector lending that would have normally led to a decline in the money supply has been replaced by credit expansion directed at the government. There has nonetheless been a slight decline in total credit market debt outstanding, but the true money supply keeps growing at a fairly fast clip (the most recent one month increase was 14.1% annualized for TMS2, i.e. TMS including savings deposits - this is for October, so prior to the start of QE2. Year-on-year growth stands at 10.1% as of October).