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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (41046)	1/13/2011 8:10:28 AM
From: Madharry	Respond to of 78530

I think that that lows of jan-march 2009 was probably the opportunity of a lifetime for many of us. I will be surprised if we ever see such a wide ranging opportunity again. as an example of a lost opportunity for me, I considered buying RSX the russian etf at that time for $10 but didnt pull the trigger in time and it shot up from there. I recently purchased it at $38 and its now flirting with $40. LVS I believe I purchased in the $4s shortly before someone from the street.com put a sell out on it. I sold it around $13 now its flirting with $50. OTOH I think there are lots of specific opportunities out there on an ongoing basis, which are accessible because of wonderful deep thinkers out there who share their thoughts on the internet, so for those of us who capitalized on the past two years these are still the best of times. In fact I now wish i could diversify my portfolio even more but cant because i have large gains i dont want to pay taxes on. I decided in those cases there is no reason for me to sell unless I believe a security is at least 20% overvalued. I continue like hard assets, restructurings, holding companies trading for a lot less than the value of their assets, and companies with low ev/ebit multiples. My only exception to that is GOOG, which is a one decision stock for me.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (41046)	1/28/2011 11:29:42 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78530

My top 10-ish positions in no particular order: NRF-A/B, UVIC, MHR-C, IDCC, EBIX, GFRE, GILD, COPJF, DRAGF. Changes in top-10: None. New positions: ESTE, PSDMF, TSP Positions increased: PWRD, MAIL, FRFHF, FSR, AXS, MSFT, GAME Positions reduced: NRF-A/B, CSGH Positions eliminated: STPJF, GS, HOG, GXDX Even though I established and increased some positions, there was not much to buy recently. Maybe this is changing with the Egyptian crisis. We will see. My fixed income pref sales continue with NRF-A/B climbing almost to par. MHR-C is now over par with investors probably expecting that the company is getting overlevered and will not be able to replace C prefs at first opportunity in December. If it is called in December, yield to maturity sucks (~7.5%). I am not selling yet, but I'm definitely thinking about it. I did not like CSGH report and lightened a bit. I sold STPJF on valuation. I did not like poor GS earnings and the fact that they made most money on trading their own accounts, so I sold the whole position. I finished selling HOG. The turnaround is somewhat there, but the company is still struggling. I am sure HOG would be a good acquisition for someone and it might even make a good turnaround, but I am not so confident in it at this price. GXDX announced a buyout. First buyout for me this year. I should have kept full position instead of selling half at $21 when they announced shopping for buyer. Sold the last half after announcement. New positions: ESTE - our old friend BSIC renamed. Reacquired position that I previously sold higher. PSDMF - interesting drama for popcorn. Not a value stock. Exploratory position. TSP - pretty cheap if they can figure a way to maintain or grow their earnings. Initial position. MAIL has announced new agreement with GOOG and it looks like they are going to make tons of cash for coming couple years. Bought more. MSFT is still very cheap. Added after earnings. The rest are increases on valuation and attempts to productively deploy money: PWRD, FRFHF, FSR, AXS, GAME. Most of them will announce earnings sometime in coming two weeks. I don't expect anything spectacular. Hopefully no blowups either.