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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (41250)	1/30/2011 10:42:33 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78526

Somebody asked me in private why MHR-C yield to maturity is ~7.5 and not 9.X% that you get dividing $2.5625/$25.8. Here's the answer: At maturity you only get $25 for the pref, while you are paying $25.8 for it now. So you lose $.8 that you have to make up from divvies. Your yield to maturity for remaining 10 months is about ($25 + $2.5625/12*10) - $25.8 / $25.8. The actual formula is much more complicated due to discounting and monthly accumulation + possible reinvesting, so you have to plug in numbers into one of the yield-to-maturity online calculators. Here's one, though it has 1 year minimum for calculations: moneychimp.com Your only chance to get better yield is that MHR-C would not be called in December. The longer it's not called the better your yield becomes. If it's called in Dec, the yield rather sucks.

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (41250)	2/4/2011 2:55:45 AM
From: JHalperin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78526

GFRE is also one of my top holdings and along with other Chinese small-caps took a "CCME" hit today. I estimate a forward PE of 5 at todays close because bromine prices appear to have increased alot since their 3rd qtr report where they said prices averaged $2,700. Both the published bromine spot price and ALB's 4th qtr. report indicate current pricing of at least $4,000. I presume GFRE's realized prices don't exactly follow spot due to fixed priced contracts, but they did mention in November they are re-negotiating contract prices. Together with the latest salt field purchase that wasn't figured in their 11/10 guidance, the forward eps estimte by analysts of $1.67 is probably low and possibly very low. A wild card is their cost of production which increased in the third qtr on flat sales. Increased bromine prices plus increasing production less increased cost of sales equal at least $1.80 eps next year? If so, GFRE is selling at 5x forward earnings, has a sqeaky clean balance sheet (no AR or inventory issues), has a share repurchase program and Big 4 Deloitte is looking them over. I added more today at $9.15. What's your current thinking on GFRE? Thanks, Joel

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (41250)	2/17/2011 12:13:39 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 78526

My top 10-ish positions in no particular order: NRF-A/B, UVIC, IDCC, EBIX, GFRE, GILD, COPJF, DRAGF. Changes in top-10: MHR-C - out New positions: PTNR, GPS, BBD, EGY, ARY, AFSI Positions increased: NXY, SDTH, AXS, MSFT, TPCS, AMGN Positions reduced: NRF-A/B, MHR-C, GPOR, UFPT Positions eliminated: SOHU, RIMM, FR-J Flip-flops: ESTE, CCME This was pretty active time for me. In fixed income area, I have sold remaining FR-J, reduced NRF-A/B as they climbed up and sold a bunch of over-par MHR-C. Not much is attractive in fixed income right now, but I decided to dip a toe into MCsweet's ARY. I flip-flopped into and out of CCME with minor gain. I decided that I don't like our old friend's ESTE's results and sold my position after buying at lower prices a week or couple ago. On the sell side, I sold SOHU that has become richly valued. At least premier Chinese companies still provide nice returns. :) I sold RIMM due to uncertainty in cell phone business, although they may benefit from disastrous NOK decisions. I sold some more GPOR. Every time I sell, it goes up. ;) Maybe it will fall when I sell my last shares? ;) People can probably find out how big percentage I left on the table so far. Ah the Internet never forgets. ;) UFPT - I said that I was not very psyched about it at $11... Shoulda bitten my tongue, since it started running up next day or so. Almost double in month and a half. Now I sold a bit just so it does not get into my top 10 positions. :) Getting fairly valued here. In oil area, I bought some more unloved NXY and restarted my EGY position after two and half years. Not much has changed, has it? ;) I bought an exploratory position in PTNR. Not very exciting company, definitely with political risk and some leverage. GPS has been discussed here by Paul Senior. Pretty nice valuation. In for small position right now. BBD - Brazilian bank discussed here. I don't particularly like banks, but I'll dip my toe for exploratory position. AFSI was suggested and discussed here. I still don't like the P/Book ratio, but results are so far solid, so I bought a position. Increased positions in SDTH, AXS, MSFT, TPCS, AMGN based on valuation. IMHO MSFT is a great way to play NOK's "conversion". If it succeeds, which is very unlikely, MSFT will benefit a lot. If it doesn't, MSFT does not lose much either. TPCS - a US small cap that looks remarkably like Chinese small cap. Oh, they even have a subsidiary in China. No wonder. Well, at least people will find someone to sue if a fraud is discovered. Apparently so far the management is in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania. If I was them, I'd get airline tickets and Chinese visas asap. :P