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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOHN W. who wrote (2747)	11/12/1997 10:14:00 PM
From: Joe E.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

John W. Re your note including <<The global equity crisis was certainly the catalyst, and nothing will get better until this anxiety is over (when will we decouple from ASIA?). The bigger picture is, if someone can make money anticipating further decline into the low 30s because the mkt is dragging it down, then where would the Dow's bottom be. Nasdaq? Scrip data although is very positive is pissing on an global inferno. A discussion of the near term price movements will be decided by this Asian FLU crisis (I wish they had a PI for this). Right now, no one can see the bottom of the Hang Seng. If this retest of the lows breaks through 6900 on the Dow, where is the bottom. Will this all spiral out of control (with help of another war in the gulf) until we have a global recession, even possibility of a second Great Depression. If the whole world goes to hell in this dark moment, people will make money shorting AGPH, but we all will have much bigger problems than AGPH's short term move.>> I find it amusing (though expensive) that economist observing the world scene now have two devastating scenarios for the U. S. stock market: Scenario 1: A very strong U. S. economy causes wage inflation which causes general price inflation which causes higher interest rates, which drives down the stock market. Scenario 2: Competitive devaluations by developing countries cause DEflation in Asia and Latin America, which is exported to the U. S. (through lower prices on goods imported into the U. S.). Wages tumble, demand dries up, which drives down the stock market. I haven't seen any economist who says that the forces driving Scenario 1 are offsetting the forces driving Scenario 2, but that is obviously what is happening. Moderating growth in Asia will cool off the slightly overheating U. S. economy. However, international monetary problems are not subject to overnight fixes. They will still be hanging around at the end of the year. While I am not a stock market forecaster, i do like to make foolish predictions, so here you are: Dow today 7401 Dow 12/31/97: 7800 Dow 11/12/98: 8200