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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (109597)2/14/2011 2:51:03 AM
From: GST4 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
One thing I want to say loud and clear is this: Please continue to write, blog and post on this topic.

My take on this might be a bit different from yours -- but you are pumping out core information and implications that we need to be thinking about more often and seriously.

I am not surprised by the shift away from lower-wage production and migrant labor -- that has been in the cards for some time. Nor am I surprised by rising wage costs. I consider both of these developments to be consistent with Chinese policy goals and consistent with the direction China set for itself five years ago. It might be happening now in a more uncontrolled and chaotic manner -- but it is the right direction for China even if it is a bumpy ride from time to time.

You might recall that a couple of years ago I posted on the theme of "the end of cheap oil, cheap labor and cheap credit". That is where I think we are now. I think we are entering a period of rampant visible inflation and shortages -- a period of very stressful stagflation. That is why I have been so steadfast in maintaining that gold makes sense as a place to invest.

Where we have less agreement might be in the implications for China -- and here I think the jury is still out.

Bottom line -- brace for global inflation and watch to see how this hits China, the US and the rest of the world. In my view we are witnessing the demise of the dollar more than the demise of China -- but time will tell.



To: russwinter who wrote (109597)2/14/2011 8:55:39 AM
From: pomegranate  Respond to of 110194
 
Great work Russ, you deserve kudos for your longstanding coverage of these issues.

Also, MIT's BPP Index you mentioned is a nice find: [url]http://bpp.mit.edu[/url]



To: russwinter who wrote (109597)2/15/2011 2:10:05 PM
From: GST1 Recommendation  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 110194
 
How does your view differ from Shilling?

finance.yahoo.com