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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (304378)2/20/2011 1:09:11 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Some history as a clue for other areas still needing to drop more from here...In Florida I found that the worst hit overbuilt ground zero bust markets dropped to perhaps 1995-97 prices with drops as high as 70% off the top. The most solid, desireable, already built out areas with little speculation or overbuilding perhaps dropped back to mid 2002 pricing around a 40% haircut. Condos drops all over the place usually 50-90% plunge from the peak with the worst those built or converted during 2004-07 where most everyone was a speculator who way overpaid and had an exotic mortgage with little if any skin in the game .

You would be right if Seattle had overbuilt as badly as FLA did. It wasn't as bad here and that's why the housing crash was slow to make an impact. Had our economy remained relatively strong this housing mess would have been a blip. And I think the only reason why we are in pain now is because people are still not willing to buy. Meanwhile the apt vacancy rate has dropped below 5% and many new apts are under construction.

Having said all that, I think Seattle's economy may be encountering some problems. I don't know if it has to do with the general malaise afflicting this country or something structural more specific to the local economy but it bares watching closely.

Its a weird time and nothing is going quite like it used to.



To: John Vosilla who wrote (304378)2/20/2011 4:02:33 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
This is Michigan: Detroit's profile grows as investors, young professionals return to city

By STEVE NEAVLING
FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER

Some called them crazy.

But as outsiders declared Detroit all but dead, a passionate network of nonprofits, local developers, small-business owners, universities and hospitals poured cash and sweat into culturally rich areas that are emerging stronger and more popular than before the brutal economic downturn.

Hotels, theaters, art galleries, charter schools, condos and dozens of restaurants have opened, primarily in abandoned buildings, in the past year or are to open this year in the Midtown, New Center and Woodbridge neighborhoods.

"We are onto something great in this city," Detroit artist and muralist Jennifer Quigley said. "People who want art and culture are gravitating here."

The revitalization is being driven by generous grants, new state tax credits and more investor confidence in the city's ability to attract young professionals, art enthusiasts and others, said Sue Mosey, president of the University Cultural Center Association, a nonprofit community group based in Midtown.

At least seven major condo and apartment projects -- most in ornate, restored historic buildings -- are planned to begin this year to meet an increasing demand for housing.

Vibrant Detroit enclaves, investment attract newcomers to city
Their friends and family gasped at the news.

You're moving to Detroit? Are you crazy?

A year ago, Blake Vanier and Rachel Perschetz, both 29, vacationed in the Motor City out of curiosity. Instead of finding the dangerous wasteland often depicted on TV and in the national media, the best friends discovered a city with friendly people, eclectic hangouts and great potential.

Enamored by the city, Vanier, who works in finance, moved from New York City to a loft in Midtown near Wayne State University in mid-October with a new job. A few weeks later, Perschetz joined him from Washington, D.C., to continue working as a real estate consultant.

They are considering opening a bar or restaurant in Midtown in the near future.

"In New York or D.C., you feel insignificant," Perschetz said, sipping a beer at a bar near her loft. "But here, we bump into nice people. It's a very uncomplicated existence."

Community collaboration
Powerhouse institutions -- WSU, the Henry Ford Health System, the Detroit Medical Center and the College for Creative Studies -- are joining forces and building schools, condos and commercial space for restaurants, coffeehouses and specialty shops.

Last year, for example, foundations spent $125 million to $250 million to spur development, more than anyone can remember.

"The collaboration is greater and more organized than it ever has been," said Sue Mosey, president of the University Cultural Center Association, a nonprofit community group based in Midtown.

With the demand for housing on the rise, developers are in various stages of at least seven ambitious condo and apartment projects, most in ornate, historic buildings that had stood vacant for years. Since 2009, more than $425 million has been invested in building new housing, according to the UCCA.

Thousands of students who used to commute to WSU and CCS are moving within walking distance of classes because of the theaters, bars, restaurants and art galleries, officials from both schools said.

"Detroit is getting a reputation as a very lively, hot place to live," said Richard Rogers, CCS president. "People are gravitating here because they are finding a high quality of life."

About 92% of Midtown's 4,300 rental units are occupied, according to the UCCA.

Who's moving in?
At 29, Austin Black II is an unlikely force in Detroit's real estate scene.

Last year, Black founded City Living Detroit, a firm that sells lofts, condos, historic homes and apartments in the city. His reason: a resurging interest in the city's revitalized areas.

"More and more people feel stuck in the suburban lifestyle," said Black, who lives in Midtown. "They want something unique and vibrant."

Although many people in his industry are being bruised from the economic downturn, the opposite is true for Black. City newcomers, attracted by cheap properties, are buying lofts, houses and apartments as quickly as they become available, he said.

"Beautiful, one-bedroom lofts in emerging neighborhoods of Boston are going for half a million dollars, while the same property is available here for $150,000," Black said.

Finding private help
The future of areas such as Midtown, Woodbridge and New Center is brightened by increasingly generous nonprofits and business leaders.

Area leaders estimate that foundations spent between $125 million and $250 million in the city in 2010, about twice the amount handed out just five years ago.

In an unusual show of support in October, for example, 22 of some of the world's largest foundations pledged $21 million to boost urban vitality and promote locally owned businesses along Detroit's Woodward corridor, which runs through Midtown and New Center. The effort, called Living Cities, will help finance charter schools, mixed-use development and new homes.

Foundations, with the help of business leaders, are planning to spend $125 million for a Woodward rail line between Jefferson Avenue and New Center. The money would supplement a $425-million plan to extend light rail from the heart of downtown to the suburbs.

"We wouldn't invest in Detroit if we didn't recognize its potential as a vibrant city," said Cynthia Shaw, spokeswoman of the Troy-based Kresge Foundation, which donated more than $50 million to city projects in 2010. "We see Detroit becoming a great city again."

Mayor Dave Bing agrees, adding that the three neighborhoods will gain more strength under his long-term plan to reshape the city by encouraging residents to move to better neighborhoods with strong services. "Detroit is a lot of vibrant pieces of a yet-to-be connected puzzle," Bing said. "We are more confident than ever that the Detroit Works Project will fuse these areas of interest, support and vitality to create a city that works."

The rise of Woodbridge
Three decades ago, Larry John moved into a house in blighted Woodbridge, a neighborhood just west of Midtown.

With an abundance of single-family homes in disrepair, Woodbridge was a far cry from its heyday in the 1920s and '30s.

Where others saw blight and hopelessness, John found an opportunity in the historic homes. Beginning in the 1980s, the lawyer bought about one house or apartment building a year.

Now the owner of more than 25 residential properties, John is helping transform Woodbridge into a neighborhood infused with public art. Murals grace the walls of historic homes. Colorful statues and other art installations are increasingly common. Art galleries are popping up.

"Woodbridge is improving every year, and it really has become a unique place to live," John said.

For artists such as 39-year-old Andy Jenkins, moving to Woodbridge was a no-brainer.

"Per capita, I challenge you to find a place with more artists," said the painter, who moved from Rochester Hills to a brick house near Trumbull and Warren. "I feel at home here. I couldn't imagine moving."

As restaurants, specialty shops and other small businesses struggled through the recession in the rest of southeast Michigan, new and young entrepreneurs found success in the New Center, Woodbridge and Midtown.

After researching hip communities such as Ferndale and Royal Oak to open a raw food restaurant, LaKeta McCauley settled on Midtown.

This autumn, McCauley, 48, opened the Raw Café on Woodward and Canfield, next to Kim's Produce, a small but popular grocer that opened a year ago.

"People are realizing that Midtown is the best destination spot in the area," McCauley said. "There is a tremendously high level of consciousness here that you wouldn't have found a decade ago."

Seeing big hope for entrepreneurs, Claire Nelson cofounded Open City, a resource for prospective small-business owners, in 2007. Since then, the 34-year-old said attendance at monthly meetings has tripled.

"There is a trend for entrepreneurs to find the creative class," Nelson said. "Detroit values creativity. It always had the legacy of making things work."

lakritzweber.com



To: John Vosilla who wrote (304378)2/20/2011 5:53:06 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Interesting argument.......I am not sure I buy it.

Behind the Population Shift

By EDWARD L. GLAESER

Last week, the Census released population figures that will reshape the House of Representatives, moving political power south and west. The four states that added the most people were California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, and the two states with the highest growth rates were Arizona and Nevada. Why do these states attract so many people?

The rise of the Sun Belt has two common explanations: one climatic and the other commercial. The climatic, obvious explanation is that it’s the weather, stupid. The commercial explanation, which has a proselytizing undertone, is that places like Texas and Nevada attract companies and people with their lower business taxes and fewer regulations.

The first view emphasizes the outdoors; the second right-to-work laws. If all that we knew was that Sun Belt populations were increasing, it would be impossible to distinguish among these and other theories, but we have evidence on wages, productivity and the price of housing that can help us make sense of the Census.

If economic productivity – created by low regulations or anything else – was causing the growth of Texas, Arizona and Georgia, then these places should have high per capita productivity and wages. Yet per capita state product in Arizona in 2009 was $35,300, 16 percent less than the national average. Per capita state products was $36,700 in Georgia and $42,500 in Texas.

These figures are far below per capita state products in slow-growing places like Connecticut ($58,500), Massachusetts ($50,600) and New York ($50,200). According to the Census Bureau’s 2009 American Community Survey, median family incomes were $56,200, $60,800 and $56,600 in Georgia, Nevada and Texas, but $83,000, $81,000 and $66,900 in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York.

Low incomes and productivity in the growing states of the Sun Belt strongly suggest that their expansion is not driven by outsize economic success.

Perhaps, sunshine really is behind Sun Belt growth. A superb climate is surely part of the appeal of Silicon Valley and Los Angeles, but what about fast-growing Houston, which has 99 days a year with the temperature above 90 degrees?

The economists’ creed that free lunches are rare does appear to apply to cities as well as stocks. If a place is pleasant, you end up paying for it, especially in the form of higher housing prices. That logic explains why the median sales price for a home in the San Jose area was $630,000 in the third quarter of 2010.

But housing prices in Texas and Georgia are neither high nor rising. The median sales price for a home in greater Houston is $159,000 and in Atlanta $113,000. The comparable figures for New York and Boston are $470,000 and $367,000, respectively.

Housing in the growth regions is inexpensive, both in absolute terms and relative to those areas’ incomes. People, perhaps unsurprisingly, don’t seem to be putting great value on humid Houston weather.

But those low housing prices actually provide a vital clue about why Arizona, Georgia and Texas are growing. These states have built hundreds of thousands of homes despite having low housing prices. Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York have high prices but far less new construction.

The Sun Belt pattern of low prices and abundant construction can mean only one thing: an abundant and elastic supply of housing. Demand for new housing, due to either sunshine or economic success, isn’t driving Sun Belt growth – low prices belie that explanation.

Rather, in the growing regions, even modest demand creates far more new construction, and population growth, because supply responds so enthusiastically.

Why is housing supply so generous in Georgia and Texas? It isn’t land. Harris County, Tex., which surrounds Houston, has a higher population density than Westchester County, N.Y.

A rich body of research shows that regulation, which is intense in the Northeast and California but lax in the Sun Belt, explains why housing is supplied so readily down South. The future shape of America is being driven not by quality of life or economic success but by the obscure rules regulating local land use.

In a sense, the anti-regulation crowd is right that the laissez-faire attitude of the South and West explains their recent growth. But the usual argument focuses on the wrong regulations.

Housing regulations, more than those that bind standard businesses, explain the Sun Belt’s population growth. If New York and Massachusetts want to stop losing Congressional seats, then they must revisit the rules that make it so difficult to build. High prices show that the demand would be there if the supply is unleashed.

economix.blogs.nytimes.com