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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (3469)	11/13/1997 9:12:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I2, I believe I caused the confusion with my incorrect estimate of Cymer's book value. Cary, in his first post, suggested that UTEK and SVGI would be high on his list for adding new money to this sector. If you, like Cary, already own the industry leaders and are willing to wait a year or so for a larger than average payoff, either stock may fill the bill. Both are "value" priced. CYMI may also beat the averages, IMO, but it is not "value" priced. Ian.

To: Investor2 who wrote (3469)	11/13/1997 9:42:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I2, RE: "I'm a little confused about your conclusion on CYMI. What is your recommendation?" As Ian has stated, CYMI is NOT a value play. The numbers from Yahoo which I posted twice are accurate. Also, there are other semi-equips, such as UTEK and SVGI, which are selling at much lower multiples of cash/share, book, and sales/share, and which IMHO have greater business potential than CYMI. The CYMI story is a simple, compelling one, a one product monopoly in a key technology. This will keep it a favorite of traders and will/has cause(d) tremendous volatility. There has been some concern voiced about the durability of CYMI's monopoly, but I think another problem for investors is that CYMI's market is limited both in customers and unit demand and the limitation is not well understood/documented by analysts. I would be more inclined to invest in CYMI if the 4 analysts who cover the company would produce a convincing 5 year forecast for the number of lasers sold. I don't believe demand for DUV steppers(step and scan or step and repeat) is as volatile and uncertain as the earnings estimates for CYMI have been and CYMI earnings are directly tied to DUV stepper demand. I presented a Merril Lynch 5 year DUV forecast which I pulled from a Nikon report. It was trashed by most of the CYMI supporters, but I didn't think the numbers they wanted to use came from more reputable sources. I think CYMI stock will suffer(?) the extreme swings we have seen as long as lack of good research allows the manic hyping and trashing that we have been witnessing. Cary