global order being restored as once it was, apparently,
just in in-tray
global order in process of being restored
Subject: * Is Gaddafi Winning? - US Director of National Intelligence Seems to think so?...
Very interesting article from FT overnight, the link is attached and the full article is worth a read - The popular press wants to see a 1989-style Eastern-Europe wave of discontent/regime-change sweep through the Middle East, but (as per this article) it really does seem as though Gadaffi is gaining the upper hand.. My personal thoughts (included below from last night) are still that if Gadaffi wins it could be a watershed moment for the whole MENA protest movement (i.e. it could stop it); if Gadaffi wins it sends a very clear signal to every other regime in the region what to do if faced with a popular revolt (crush it, because the West will not intervene), and probably gives them more confidence in facing down popular protests in their own countries
ft.com
From FT: Muammer Gaddafi's superior military forces meant his "regime will prevail" in the longer term, the US director of national intelligence, James Clapper, said in comments that undermined a robust defence by Washington of its Libya policy. Mr Clapper said in testimony to Congress on Thursday that Colonel Gaddafi was relying on two of his brigades - which appeared to be "very, very loyal", "disciplined" and "robustly equipped with Russian equipment, artillery, tanks". Mr Clapper, who oversees America's 16 intelligence services, said the rebels faced great difficulties as Col Gaddafi "intentionally designed the military so that those select units loyal to him are the most luxuriously equipped and the best trained".
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Thursday, March 10, 2011 8:29 PM
Subject: * Is Gaddafi Winning? - Some Personal Thoughts
These are my own thoughts, for what they are worth, not those of GS - Thoughts welcome
Thought the story below today from the BBC was quite interesting -Looks like the key oil town of Ras Lanuf in Libya is falling back into Government hands: Some key quotes for me:
i) "We've been defeated," a rebel fighter told AFP news agency. "They are shelling and we are running away. That means that they're taking Ras Lanuf."
ii) Zawiya, 50km (30 miles) west of Tripoli, is now reported to be either largely or wholly under the control of government forces.
iii) BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says fears that the military balance may be shifting in Col Gaddafi's favour have prompted calls for urgent international action.
I don't profess to be an expert in the Middle East, but I did spend a number of years in the British Army and can't help thinking that from a military perspective it looks like the tide is turning in favour of Gadaffi - Some thoughts:
-) Been watching quite a few reports on BBC/CNN over last few nights from the ground in Ras Lanuf (John Simpson reports etc) and have been really struck by how disorganised the rebels appear: They appear to be a collection of angry youth and old men with rusty Kalashnikovs and the odd heavy-machine gun mounted in the back of Toyota van as 'Anti-Aircraft fire' (I remember being told in my 'Light Air Defence' lecture at Sandhurst that the British Army didn't shoot down a single plane in the Falklands War with this kind of weaponry; its great for morale as makes the soldiers feel they are fighting back, but wholly ineffective). They appear disorganised, leaderless, with the odd stolen tank and defecting army unit - They are no match for even the most basically disciplined army.
-) Against this Gadaffi is pitching tanks and aircraft - Unless the West imposes a no-fly zone, or can somehow bolster the effectiveness of the rebel forces with a Western expeditionary force and/or special forces, I fear the risk is that Gadaffi could well crush the rebels. Gadaffi has strong followers in Libya from his tribe, and followers whose prosperity & survival depend on his, has indentified which units/personnel are loyal to him, and is on the front foot
-) Recent comments from the US that a no-fly zone is a matter for the UN seems to me an acknowledgement that they have no interest in taking unilateral action like they did in Iraq/Afghanistan. Even if the UN votes for a no-fly zone who is going to enforce it? The US is currently 'surging' in Afghanistan, the British no longer have the operational capability - Just smells like the Western nations have no appetite to get sucked into another conflict where the endgame / exit-strategy is uncertain
And what if Gadaffi wins?
-) If Gadaffi wins, isn't this a VERY clear signal to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa what to do if they are faced with a domestic revolt? They crush it.. because the West will not intervene. If the UK/US won't physically intervene to topple a dictator that was a sponsor of international terrorism for 20 years (armed the IRA, Lockerbie etc), then that's a pretty clear signal that they won't intervene anywhere
-) ... Which changes the risk-reward dynamics somewhat elsewhere.... If the threat of Western intervention subsides across the Region, surely it makes it a riskier proposition for anyone thinking about going out on the Streets to try to force change in other MENA countries.... And, importantly, it emboldened other regimes in the Region, that previously might have feared that they were next, that they can take a bolder stance against protesters without fear of western interference.... The better Gadaffi does, the more intolerant other regimes will become of protests
-) My point? The tide might be turning in Libya, Gadaffi might be on the way to winning... and if he does it might be watershed moment for the whole MENA protest movement - We might just look back in years to come and see this as the pivotal moment at which the protest movement ran out of steam...
-) What does it mean for oil? Chance of oil-spike to $150/200 per barrel recedes as regime change in oil-rich states of Middle East recedes? But risk premium stays in oil as some regimes transition (Egypt/Tunisia), Iran continues to cause trouble, continued noise from the region especially as Gaddafi (if he survives) will surely want to exact some vengence on those who agitated for his removal... So oil still $100-125pb (our forecast before any ME problens was $110 for 2010 so supply/demand dynamics are already tight), with less chance of super-spike
Thoughts welcome
BBC: Rebels Forced from Libyan Oil Port
bbc.co.uk
Libyan rebels are fleeing the oil port of Ras Lanuf after sustained attacks by forces loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi. Rebels were travelling eastwards in vehicles after coming under fire from rockets and shells, reports said. Libyan state TV said pro-Gaddafi troops had also cleared rebels from the oil port of Sidra, west of Ras Lanuf. In recent days, Col Gaddafi's forces have been trying to regain ground in the rebel-held east, as well as the town of Zawiya, west of Tripoli.
Meanwhile, France has become the first country to recognise the Libyan rebel leadership, the National Transitional Council National (NTC), as the country's legitimate government. It came as Nato met to discuss international military options in the Libyan conflict, including the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone. There has been fierce fighting in Libya since mid-February, when opponents to Col Gaddafi's 41-year rule took many towns and cities in eastern Libya, in the wake of successful popular uprisings in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt.
One report on Thursday said that as they advanced on Ras Lanuf, tanks driven by pro-Gaddafi forces had moved to their easternmost position since the conflict began. A witness in Ras Lanuf said he had seen dozens of dead bodies in the residential part of the town. A BBC reporter said the Ras Lanuf hospital had been evacuated due to the bombardment, and a mosque had been hit in a residential area where the families of oil workers live. "Gaddafi is attacking us with planes, tanks, rockets and heavy weapons, we are unarmed civilians and there many families and kids were hit," one Libyan told the BBC. "We've been defeated," a rebel fighter told AFP news agency. "They are shelling and we are running away. That means that they're taking Ras Lanuf."
But Reuters quoted rebels as denying that the town had fallen. Government planes also bombed Brega, another oil port further east. One witness there told the BBC that rebels were able to resist Gaddafi ground troops, but were more vulnerable to air attacks. The air strikes had also been targeting oil facilities, he said. Zawiya, 50km (30 miles) west of Tripoli, is now reported to be either largely or wholly under the control of government forces. A journalist for the Times of London reported from Zawiya on Thursday that the centre of the town was under government control, and that there was a clean-up operation going on after days of intense fighting.
BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says fears that the military balance may be shifting in Col Gaddafi's favour have prompted calls for urgent international action. At Nato headquarters in Brussels, Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the organisation had agreed to increase its maritime presence in the central Mediterranean to help enforce the arms embargo against Libya.
But he said more planning would be needed on a possible "no-fly" zone. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has announced that she will travel to Egypt and Tunisia next week, and that she will meet rebel leaders during the trip. "We are reaching out to the opposition inside and outside of Libya," she said. The president of the International Committee of the Red Cross said on Thursday there was a marked increase in civilian casualties in what he called a "civil war". A BBC team detained and beaten up in Libya witnessed widespread mistreatment by the security forces. They were subjected to mock executions and held for 21 hours in bloodstained cells, where they heard people screaming in adjacent rooms. |
