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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51475)	3/16/2011 4:50:54 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95383

Hi Jacob, You are going in deep on that short. True confession I can not short - makes me way too nervous. What if they get the pumps going tonight with that power line. Offering up some real hope.It weould trigger a heck of a short squeeze. Regarding damage to Japanese chip makers. Don't you think most chip makers are paired up, as most do not like single sourcees for integral components procurement? There no doubt is some. I view the electronics business as so competitive - any opening of a new buyer and it is like ground beef being thrown into a prrahnna poll. Not sure but if anybody can get changed over to a new and big market - it will be the electronics industry. Bob

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51475)	3/17/2011 9:19:36 AM
From: brokenst0nes	Respond to of 95383

On the SOX. Watch it closely for non-equipment components. Have been waiting for 410 for a few weeks now. Finally got down there yesterday, but it's been hard work. Lots of people buying on any dips, look at bounce back on Tuesday. Wednesday was first day when the bounce back died off. On Japan also think the effects on the supply chain aren't fully worked out, and of course not baked into the market. We might have to wait another month when Q1 results season starts before we get a second leg down. 410 brings us back to December level, 375 to low for November. Be surprised we go any lower than 400 unless things go bad on supply front, i.e some critical component is in short supply and will affect Q2 revenue for large chunk of supply chain. If so then 375 is possible. JMHO

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51475)	3/20/2011 4:05:50 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

Ultra-Loose U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policy is Approaching an End: Apart from the geopolitical backdrop, there are additional reasons to be cautious at this juncture. Unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies have created an economic recovery that is artificial to an indeterminate degree. Similarly, the massive rally in the stock market of the past two years has been built to an uncomfortably large extent on the shaky ground of extraordinary government intervention in the form of $1.5 trillion annual fiscal deficits and over $2 trillion of Federal Reserve asset purchase programs. Aside from job creation, which has been consistently disappointing, U.S. economic data have generally surprised on the upside over the past several months, but how the economy performs once stimulus begins to be withdrawn after the second quarter is an open question. “Quantitative Easing” Set to End June 30 There has obviously been a strong correlation between the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs and the performance of the financial markets. The 25% rally in the S&P 500 over the past six months commenced when Bernanke announced his intentions for a second round of market intervention through quantitative easing. The Fed has lubricated markets with $80 billion per month of Treasury bond purchases using newly printed money. This monetization program expires June 30, and in all likelihood will not be extended. Inflation pressures are simply too high for even Bernanke to justify continuing with such an unorthodox and overtly inflationary program Quantitative easing has affected all financial markets – stocks, currencies, commodities, and bonds. Nearly 70% of the annualized issuance of Treasury bonds since the beginning of QE2 has been purchased by the Fed, which raises the question - who will buy Treasuries at current yields when the Fed doesn’t? Investors should be apprehensive about the consequences of the June 30 expiration of QE2.... seekingalpha.com my comment: If the Libya war and Japan meltdown are fixed soon, or at least off the front pages, the market may reach new Bull Market highs, between now and June 30. If that happens, I will use it as an opportunity to reload short positions (in semi-equips, airlines, and possibly solars), and further trim long positions. The only long positions I'll be initiating, will be shortterm trades, and CCJ (uranium miner). I'm guessing the Tea Partiers will stop QE3, till after the next financial crisis.