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Non-Tech : Simula (SMU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LAWREAL who wrote (779)	11/14/1997 4:09:00 PM
From: michael c. dodge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1671

My bet is profitable in 2nd quarter, 1998, with luck and not until. It is already November 14, and they are not certain about the end of the tunnel. The new production manager must settle in, figure things out, get control of processes and personnel, and effect changes. (And, they have to let him, and not interfere.) All this, in the middle of ongoing change. The next ITS contract will not come into production until late 1998. They need the BMW Three Series volume, in my opinion, to offset the 16G confusion. This will be, at the earliest, in mid-1998. ITS is profitable from the get-go. Announcing another ITS contract may move the stock temporarily, but I do not think fundamental change will be permanent for another six months, at least. My bet is Volkswagen, and announced as soon as VW will let them. I still like and own the company, and will continue both, but last weekend, in research, I read an interview with D. Townsend in the Arizona Republic, dated November 10 (1996), in which many of the same things were said. Deja vu all over again. <G>

To: LAWREAL who wrote (779)	11/14/1997 4:18:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1671

Hi Lawreal, The call was a "ho-hummur", as you correctly deduced. The fact that Mercedes and Volvo have selected a "curtain" rather than ITS is old news, and reflects (principally) the reality that Autoliv would prefer to sell to clients something that was invented there. In the long run, Simula needs to establish relationships with all first tier suppliers, so the initial choices by these two firms (in my view) don't bear relevancy on the current situation. The most important issue discussed in the conference call was the addition of ITS manufacturing capacity. In my view, the increment to Simula's manufacturing base is substantially more than what is needed in the next 12-18 months, so I am making a judgement that the extra line in Phoenix (where none was actually expected to be) is there not only as a "backup" for the British production, but is there to develop credibility with American automotive companies. In time, we will see if I am right. Have a good weekend.