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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Post-Crash Index-Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19122)4/27/2011 4:04:39 PM
From: No Mo Mo  Respond to of 119361
 
Not that anyone should ever take a cue from me, but I sold my last two hedges this afternoon.

Long 2/3rds
Cash 1/3rd



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19122)4/27/2011 4:22:11 PM
From: James Hutton  Respond to of 119361
 
Don't think he's the last bear, but probably getting close.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19122)4/30/2011 1:13:19 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 119361
 
The Party’s Over for Buffett
______________________________________________________________

By JOE NOCERA
Op-Ed Columnist
The New York Times
April 29, 2011

It’s D-Day for the World’s Greatest Investor.

Starting at around 9:30 this morning, Warren Buffett will stand on the stage of the cavernous Qwest Center in Omaha and face the music. Three journalists will ask him questions culled from thousands that have been e-mailed by shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett’s sprawling holding company. The audience will consist of 35,000 of those shareholders who traveled to Omaha to hear him.

Buffett describes this event — a k a the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting — as “Woodstock for capitalism.” It’s normally a festive affair, with shareholders celebrating a stock that has made many of them wealthy, while Buffett, a shameless ham, cracks wise and dispenses folksy investing wisdom.

This year, though, the tone is likely to be more somber, thanks to l’affaire Sokol, which has seriously dented Buffett’s pristine image. For someone who has said repeatedly that he would rather lose money than even a shred of reputation, his actions have been inexplicable. Thus the questions this morning are going to be unusually tough. As they should be.

David Sokol, of course, was the trusted Buffett aide who left Berkshire last month after it was revealed that he had bought $10 million worth of Lubrizol, a company he then convinced Buffett to buy — giving Sokol a nifty $3 million profit in a few weeks’ time. To his credit, Buffett is the one who revealed this information in a press release.

But in that same release, Buffett went to embarrassing lengths to absolve his former top lieutenant, even writing at one point, “Neither Dave nor I feel his Lubrizol purchases were in any way unlawful.” That is a stupefying sentence for someone who tells his executives that if they’re worried that “some action is too close to the line, just assume it is outside and forget about it.”

Since then, Buffett has been subject to criticism of a kind he has never before faced. Michael Steinhardt, the former hedge fund manager, went on CNBC and essentially denounced him as a hypocrite. Journalists have written stories that show Sokol in an extremely unflattering light; in a lawsuit last year, he was accused of ripping off minority shareholders of a venture he controlled — an accusation with which the judge, after hearing Sokol testify, wholeheartedly agreed. “It makes you question Warren’s judgment,” said Jeff Matthews, an investor and the author of the new e-book, “Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett.”

Earlier this week, the Berkshire Hathaway audit committee issued a scathing report, accusing Sokol of dissembling about his Lubrizol purchase. The report seemed rather conveniently timed to take a little pressure off Buffett in advance of the annual meeting. But it shouldn’t.

Even if Sokol did lie to Buffett, as the audit committee suggests, the Sokol mess still raises a host of painful questions for both Buffett and his shareholders. For starters, the report doesn’t explain why Buffett let Sokol walk out the door with a pat on the back instead of a kick in the rear. What moved him to pre-emptively clear Sokol, who had so clearly violated Berkshire’s code of conduct, of wrongdoing? What does that tell us of possible flaws in Buffett’s character?

Just as importantly for shareholders, there are questions about his management style — questions that were once easy to ignore but no longer are. Buffett has always operated Berkshire Hathaway more or less by the seat of his pants. Although Berkshire owns more than 40 companies outright and has more than $136 billion in revenue, Buffett employs fewer than two dozen people at the holding company itself. He often buys companies with very little due diligence; he reads their financial reports, meets the owners and makes a deal. His board is made up primarily of cronies, including his son Howard. Berkshire’s compliance practices essentially consist of a letter that he sends to his top executives every two years reminding them to act ethically.

In other words, Buffett has always played by his own rules — rules that are extraordinarily lax by the standards of good corporate governance. He’s been able to get away with this because, well, he’s Warren Buffett. His track record has been so great, and his persona so impregnable, that his shareholders have been willing to give him a bye.

But after the Sokol business, Buffett’s management practices at Berkshire Hathaway deserve much tougher scrutiny. “Standards and practices have to change,” Matthews told me this week, shortly before hopping on a plane to Omaha. I can’t imagine that most Berkshire shareholders would disagree.

If they’re smart, Buffett and his shareholders will view this fiasco as a wake-up call. Buffett is 80 years old. He can’t run Berkshire forever, much as he might like to. When he finally retires, Berkshire will only succeed if it has a management structure that is not solely reliant on one man’s investing genius.

Being the World’s Greatest Investor just isn’t enough anymore. Not that it ever should have been.

tinyurl.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19122)5/10/2011 2:35:48 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 119361
 
Why economic growth may no longer mean job growth

news.yahoo.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19122)5/13/2011 12:21:03 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 119361
 
Bank of America's Rosy Housing Outlook

businessweek.com

By Hugh Son

Bank of America (BAC) is betting a recovery in home prices this year will allow it to avoid new losses on mortgage loans. That outlook clashes with the views of some independent analysts—and its own economist. Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan's credibility is riding on the outcome as he seeks to convince investors that the lender can curb costs from bad mortgages. The bank had to book $3 billion in expenses in the past two quarters because it underestimated the slide in housing values. It says it may suffer $1.5 billion in losses for every four percentage points that home-price declines exceed its estimates for a market that Moynihan told shareholders on May 11 still faces "enormous challenges."

While Bank of America does not disclose its home price forecast, spokesman Jerry Dubrowski says it is "close" to the average 1.4 percent decline predicted by 111 economists surveyed by research firm MacroMarkets. Neil Cotty, the bank's chief accounting officer, said on an Apr. 15 conference call with analysts that home prices may begin a "gradual improvement over the second half."

Cotty's view is more optimistic than the one held by Michelle Meyer, the bank's senior U.S. economist, who predicts the market won't hit bottom until 2012. Meyer, whose arrival in August from Barclays Capital (BCS) was accompanied by a news release praising her housing expertise, sees foreclosure sales as a drag in coming months. "There's a long and painful path before the housing market looks normal," she said in an Apr. 20 interview on Bloomberg Television. "Our view is that we'll see a 5 percent drop in national home prices this year; it could be larger. The increased share of distressed sales will continue to exert downward pressure on home prices."

Each quarter, banks set aside money to cover mortgage losses, basing the amount on their outlook for the housing market and other factors. That money is deducted from the bank's earnings, so adding less to reserves increases reported profits. "If you put on a pair of rose-colored glasses with respect to the housing market, then you can defer the recognition of provision costs and buy time to earn your way out of the hole," says Tony Plath, a professor of finance at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte who follows Bank of America. "It's wrong, but that's what's going on."

Home values fell 3 percent in the first quarter, according to real estate website Zillow. Stan Humphries, the firm's chief economist, says prices will drop as much as 9 percent this year and won't find a floor until 2012 as foreclosures spread and unemployment remains high. Prices are close to the low reached in April 2009, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Robert Shiller, the Yale University economics professor who helped develop the index, said on Apr. 26 that values may decline "another 5 or 10 percent."

Bank of America, based in Charlotte, holds $408 billion of mortgages and home-equity lines. Its home-loan division has lost more than $15 billion since the 2008 acquisition of Countrywide Financial, the biggest mortgage lender during the housing bubble. Concern that those costs will swell has hurt shares of BofA, the largest U.S. lender by assets and the biggest servicer of mortgages. The stock's drop of about 29 percent in the past year is the worst in the 24-company KBW Bank Index.

In the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of this year, Bank of America wrote down the value of a group of troubled loans, mostly inherited in the Countrywide takeover, by a total of $2.4 billion and set aside an additional $500 million to repurchase defective mortgages, all because home prices fell by more than the bank had estimated. Those expenses weakened Moynihan's credibility with investors, according to John McDonald, a Sanford C. Bernstein analyst, who says they give the impression that the bank's "assumptions around housing prices are not as conservative as they could be."

Other banks expect home prices to drop and are selling bad mortgages. Citigroup (C), the third-largest bank by assets, sold $1.1 billion in delinquent mortgages in the first quarter because the New York-based firm sees "downward pressure" on prices this year, Treasurer Eric Aboaf said on Apr. 27.

"Reasonable people will come to different views when looking at economic forecasts," says BofA's Dubrowski. "I don't think we're overly optimistic in our expectations for housing prices."

The bottom line: Bank of America, already burned by its upbeat home price forecasts, continues to count on more improvement than others see.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (19122)5/18/2011 8:41:46 PM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 119361
 
The global growth balance in 2025

bit.ly