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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11181)	11/15/1997 10:54:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian: Thanks This has the info I'm looking for, but only for 1997. I'd really like to make a longer-term chart, comparing several cycles. I'm looking for a leading indicator that AMAT's price has peaked and is heading down. The analyst downgrades really didn't come soon enough. If I used the PE ratio to tell me when the stock was overvalued, I would have sold well before the peak, and missed the last 30 points on the upside. News of fab pushouts also happened long after the peak. This year, the RAM price index hit a peak in April, and was definitely declining by the time of AMAT's price peak in August. If I'd used the RAM price index to tell me when to sell, I probably would have sold too soon. I probably would have sold for about 30-35 in May or June, and now be thinking about buying back at about the same price. That's worse than a buy-and-hold strategy, because I'd have to pay short-term capital gains taxes. I'll keep looking for my leading indicator. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see whether the RAM index turns up before AMAT's price does.