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To: Thomas George Warner who wrote (10369)11/16/1997 1:42:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike  Respond to of 12298
 
<<<"Jonathan profit margins at APM are not on the way down...see post 10361," >>>

Firstly, let me say i enjoyed reading your recent post Jonathan.

Secondly, in reference to the above quote, i equate "profits" with EPS, and from my best recollection, First Call was looking for .84 cents, and the reported number was .60 cents. So, in my book, APM is not making the numbers.

For a shareholder, if a company makes great profits, but it doesn't trickle down to EPS, all the profits in the world don't mean squat.

as for the past, i agree with Jonathan, it's meaningless. APM has to be able to make money and sell product in the coming quarters, and judging by their lack of ability in making MR heads, they will be unable to do so.

Mike




To: Thomas George Warner who wrote (10369)11/16/1997 7:50:00 PM
From: Helios  Respond to of 12298
 
'profit margins at APM are not on the way down'

Hold the phone. HOLD THE PHONE.

Man you are researching antcient history. Look at APM's press release.

Gross margins in the fourth quarter of fiscal 1997 were 26.7
percent, a decrease from 29.7 percent for the same period last year,
and a decrease compared with gross margins of 32.1 percent in the
third quarter of fiscal 1997.
Net sales and gross margins in the fourth quarter of fiscal 1997
were negatively impacted by lower yields on newly qualified
magnetoresistive (MR) programs and 1.7-gigabyte-per-3.5"-disk
inductive thin film products, which were in their first full quarter
of volume production.


APM's profit margins are great on their TFI heads but to whom are they selling them?



To: Thomas George Warner who wrote (10369)11/16/1997 9:05:00 PM
From: Jonathan Bird  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 12298
 
<<Jonathan profit margins at APM are not on the way down...see post 10361, which you more than likely did not read.>>

Give me a break man. You've taken us in a circle. Post 10361 is the post I originally responded to. This is the whole point im trying to make. Check this out:

Extrapolated from the 10Qs

Profit Margin expressed in % rounded to .01

.........1997...........1996
Dec......?..............26
Sep......13.............14
Jun......17.............3
Mar......25.............10

Gross Profit Margin expressed in % rounded to .01

.........1997...........1996
Dec......?..............38
Sep......27.............30
Jun......32.............24
Mar......38.............29

Any way you slice it, both sequentially and year to year, gross and net, profit margins are turning down for the past 1 or 2 quarters.

What you're looking at is 12 month figures. You gotta go QTR by QTR. Things change really fast. I can't emphasize this enough. Past performance data is only good so far as it helps you to determine a trend. The trend has turned down. Past performance can not help the future. You are a perfect example of the psychology that is holding this stock up(relative to the rest of the sector).

<<Do not know where you got the idea that APM is not paying taxes either>>

I didn't mean to imply that they were paying zero taxes. Just that they are using a lot of tax credits that have been saved up from all those years of unprofitability. Don't tell me you didn't already know this. You knew what I meant.

<<It is obvious that you are not interested in discussing the facts, or in learning how to get started in properly researching this stock.>>

Im not just getting started in APM. I've been trading in it since it was at 24 back in April. It was a good bottom fish then. It is not now in my opinion.

If you've got anything else to add I hope you will do so. Despite what you might think of my contributions, I appreciate your point of view. One of the great things about SI is how you can get a perspective on the market psychology that is affecting a stock. When an investor like you realizes that APM is in deep dodo then that will perhaps signal a bottom to me.

Good trading,

Jon Bird