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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (10372)	11/16/1997 10:25:00 PM
From: Badger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

To all from both APM threads: I have been a lurker here for several months. It seems that a crucial time has come upon the long-term viability of APM. My question for all of you is if you had one question for Craig Crisman what would it be? I would really like to know what some of the crucial questions are and I believe there are a number of informed people on each thread. Thank you in advance for your help. Badger

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (10372)	11/16/1997 11:33:00 PM
From: Thomas George Warner	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12298

Jonathan your contributions are not the issue. I am attempting to point out what I believe is an error in your analysis of the stock. If you think that your viewpoint is correct than by all means stick with it. Time will tell which of us is correct. Too many investors get hung up on the short term fluctuations of the stock and start watching the qtr to qtr numbers in an attempt to guess the future. I can tell you from spending many thousands of hours doing it that it does not work. The two most important ingredients of a good company is product and mangement. This company has them both. APM is not as you say in deep dodo. Earnings per share are not necessarily a good indication of the soundness of a company. Remember that EPS is subject to various accounting techniques. Have you looked into that facet of this stock. In summation stick to your guns. I will invest in the stock and in the next 90 days will make 20% or more. Lets see who is right?

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (10372)	11/17/1997 10:06:00 AM
From: Jadrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

Jonathan vs T.G.W. Jonathan, take it easy with T.W.G. His profile states that he is a retired engineer that does "lots of research", ie. has a lot of time on his hands. He appears to be quite good at looking at "historical" financials statements and selecting the "stronger" company. As we all know, the stronger "fundamental" company is the one which is able to produce stronger future earnings. Which company that is, is an educated guess. Saying "I don't know" is hardly "uneducated" investing unless you're a fortune teller. Let T.W.G. play with historicals. Which company (if either) of APM or RDRT is able to adjust to the new technology and competition will be the winner. Which one does the market think is "stronger" fundamentally. Probably the one with the higher P/E. But saying that, only the future will tell (PS: I'm long RDRT).

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (10372)	11/17/1997 11:53:00 AM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12298

Johnathan, this isn't about APM really, is it? Now that some less-than stellar nummbers are available for APM, with a cloudy future outlook, you use the time to bash APM while the kicking's good. Long RDRT and short APM, are we? APM is certainly in a difficult time, where the strategy of "transition in our own sweet time" appears moot. However 1) the MR development .vs. RDRT doesn't appear that far off, maybe what happened is that WDC lost its nerve when the 1.7 yield didn't immediately show well. I don't know that RDRT supplied any 1.7 heads, just that they've given up on producing them. So, is this a technology (1.7 tfi) that APM must write off? As supply to WDC DDs, maybe (BTW, I don't think WDC stopped buying TFI heads altogether, yet.) Anyway besides all the technical issues about which we can endlessly speculate, evidently we have been in the midst of a "boom" time for DD manufacture since last summer. Seagate went to 70, WDC went ballistic, split, etc. Companies were earning money, after years of the doldrums. Except RDRT. Check the SI profile for last 6 quarters, RDRT netted a total of 4.3 million on sales of 1.6 billion. APM in the same business netted 114.8 million on sales of 658 million. Ok, you say its only qtr-by-qtr that matters. Qtr-by-Qtr, the highest net margin RDRT managed to eke out was 10.0, beating onlythe first (worst) net margin of APM for quarter ending 6/30/97. On a quarterly basis there are probably adjustments and "one-time" charges against earnings that you might take as excusesfor why 4.3million was the only change left from 1.6billion sales. I won't say it is bad management, but the results of the two companies under the same time frame are quite different. Lastly, I want to point out that the RDRT share held on 6/30/96 represents 5% less of the company than the same share on 9/30/97. I look forward to your rebuttal because you probably know more about these issues than I, having traded the DD stocks longer. I've heard more than once RDRT being recommended over APM and I can't figure it out. OK maybe you are arguing on a "brighter future" hypothesis. These last few weeks teach me, however, that for techs the bright future is pretty much BS and I prefer they make hay while the sun shines. RDRT evidently has spent the last 6 quarters preparing for the future that is now upon them, while now people are dumping drives and there is a glut of MR heads for sale. APM is maybe a few months behind in MR maybe not that much. Greg