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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maxwell who wrote (9911)	11/17/1997 9:11:00 AM
From: Steven Angelil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

What's wrong this am? I see Intel, AMAT, heck, even COMS is opening -2 bucks higher, and here we are up an 1/8th??!!! Steve

To: Maxwell who wrote (9911)	11/17/1997 12:18:00 PM
From: moat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Maxwell: About the hope for 200 lasers in 97q4 ... keep in mind that 97q2 earnings release said: "We believe that we have essentially satisfied our customers near term demand to fill their production lines with lasers. Our continued growth rate will be a function of the speed at which our customers ship steppers and scanners to the chip makers as well as our ability to meet their delivery schedules." In summary, during the past 7 quarters they shipped the following number of lasers (at ASP of $0.440M): 15 27 41 62 84 117 126 And backlog (in $M) for the last 6 quarters were: 49 52 98 91 123 116 My guess is that the numbers slowed down a bit from q2 to q3 due to the statement above. So, 200 lasers for q4 seems a bit optimistic to me ... IMHO ... nonetheless... don't get me wrong... I read quite a few of your posts on CYMI and they are very informative... thanks again for all your help on this thread. -moat

To: Maxwell who wrote (9911)	11/17/1997 2:55:00 PM
From: moat	Respond to of 25960

Maxwell: Please help me out with these numbers that don't tie together... Regarding the estimated number of DUV steppers to be shipped in 1997, various published estimates are: Research Firm....... 1997 1998 (units of stepper shipment) ------------------------------------------------ VLSI ...................... 293 862 Dataquest ............ 300 400 Morgan Stanley... 290 475 and for 1997, during the first three quarters, Cymer already shipped 327 lasers. Where else are Cymer's lasers going to besides steppers? Scanners perhaps? Have you seen the quarter by quarter (or year by year)) shipment numbers into scanners? Who make scanners? Can we track that in addition to steppers? Also, for 1998, the range of estimates are pretty wide, from 400 to 862 .... what's your estimate? and why? Isn't this the key to figuring out CYMI's stock 12 months out? ... how many lasers for 1998? -moat

To: Maxwell who wrote (9911)	11/18/1997 10:38:00 PM
From: molemania	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

*Off Topic* Maxwell, Specialist, et al - If SE Asian fab building slows or comes to a halt, what is to stop construction in Europe, Latin America, etc., if the demand is there? Sam Citron explained his view on another thread but I can't find his response now. I believe he said that it is inherent for Korea, Taiwan, etc, to crank out chips regardless of demand and that if they do not expand fab construction over there, there is not necessarilly a reason for the slack to be taken up somewhere else. I think this is what he said. If this is too inane a question, disregard it. Thanks Dave