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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (24185)11/17/1997 9:43:00 AM
From: Sridhar Srinivasan  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53903
 
Skeeter, congratulations on all the moolah you should have collected during this down turn, and good predictions too (sic).

i know where to get extremely accurate dram info that the
market apparently ignores for months.
mu meets w/ analysts this week and it must be gory. dram at $3.46? OUCH!!!!


Apparently, there is a significant discrepancy in DRAM pricing between SDRAM and all the old flavors. Currently, 16 MB SDRAM sells in local stores for $99 whereas corresponding price for EDO is $49. Also, $3.46 you quote from achilles seems to be relevant to EDO, not SDRAM.

Do you know the current price for 16 Mb SDRAM? I would be interested in both contract (your est. - no one knows this for sure) and spot prices (which are typically valid for lower grade stuff that most of the larger consumers will not touch).

Thanks in advance for the info.

Sridhar



To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (24185)11/18/1997 1:12:00 AM
From: Kerry Phineas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Buggered, re"dram is doing much, much worse than i thought it would." Its called rampant overcapacity and competitive devaluation of currencies. IMO it overshadows any of the other issues re MU (except for the mediocre balance sheet). If MU or TXN go up enough I'm definitely getting a few more positions in each. Enter if MU hits the upper 20's?



To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (24185)11/18/1997 2:23:00 AM
From: Richard Russell  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
SB,
Im glad to hear that you have finally been rewarded for your accurate fumbdelmental analysis of mu. I for one have also been richly rewarded for understanding the reality of mu's business and earnings and have been fortunate and or lucky enough to correctly percieve and anticipate the obvious supply and demand pressures of the memory chip industry and its effects on mu. I also had the persistence or stupidity to stick to my convictions as long as the fundmentals indicated that the value of the stock did not reflect its price and would not in the near and intermediate future under the most optimistic realistic circumstances. But my timing has not been great. I don't trade options like yourself and many others on this thread. I did take my first few short posistions back in feb. at an average of 35 and rode this sucker all the way to 60, margin calls got ugly, and I continuely looked for any reason as to why I was wrong but the more info I got the more convinced I became that mu would was and still is extremely overvalued. I now have additional short position at 45, 37, 29 and today again at (25,might have jumped the gun). I think todays action was just short covering to take profits, this pop will be short lived and we will soon be in the teens. I have also done well day trading mu short. As of now I am close to a 6 fiqure profit on shorting mu. I am expecting to cover in the teens but if the situation contunes to deteriorate, I may try to milk some more out of this one. I thank all for your input. The comprhensive info on mu presented on this thread was a gift on a silver plater. I only hope that most who follow this thread have done well with puts and or shorts. I am extremely pessimistic as to mu's future. With the way things stand now I think bulls fishing for a bottom are at great risk. Hope we can all continue to profit from this siuation for awhile. Good luck. RR