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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (9412)	7/12/2011 5:27:57 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

Re: WM ... I don't mind the downgrade as long as WM can maintain an 8% dividend growth rate. Let it slip down to 4% or 2% and I'll have to take a look elsewhere. There are too many 3% yielders with good dividend growth rates to worry about this one if the dividend growth rate drops. Although I'd like to have exposure to this sector, I won't do it if I can't get a decent dividend increase elsewhere. My entry price was higher. I'm in at $34.96, or I should say that's my cost per share, and I don't mind the $34 price target as long WM continues to raise that dividend in the 8% range. I'm looking forward to their earnings conference call. I want to hear what management has to say.

To: E_K_S who wrote (9412)	7/12/2011 11:27:58 PM
From: Steve Felix	Respond to of 34328

My opinion of analysts in general isn't very good. lol! You can get some good information, but a price target is just their wag, and not information as far as I am concerned. You also have to figure in their time frame of their target. Mostly I think analysts want you to trade so their firms can make $$$. According to Yahoo, Wedbush downgraded WM on July 10, 2010 from outperform to neutral. According to my charts, that close, $31.29, was never breached except to $31.22 intraday the next day. It would have been a great day to buy as WM went up 30% over the next nine months. Other targets: Last report from Credit Suisse was June 11, $36.00 The Street last updated four days ago, $43.89 S+P reports - four star buy rating from five days ago, $44.00 Haven't seen the Wedbush report, but S+P is calling for $2.45 earnings for 2012. That would be a good buy at $34 imho, with a forward pe under 14. Not looking at it like a trader, but someone who has put it in both my girls reinvesting portfolios, they would like if it goes to $30. WM has given three decent raises the last three years even though their earnings have been below 2007. As things improve I expect 7% to 8% raises to continue. I like that not only are they getting paid to create their own future energy supplies, but are expanding in that area: In March 2010, WM acquired a 40% interest in Shanghai Environment Group (SEG), a leading waste-to-energy company in China, for $142 million. In April 2010, it bought a waste-to-energy plant in Virginia for $150 million. First thing tomorrow, I should to tell my girls they can no longer bring their trash over and sit it at the end of my driveway with mine, saving themselves a garbage bill.

To: E_K_S who wrote (9412)	7/13/2011 9:44:12 AM
From: Steve Felix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34328

Re: BOX ... I have not been able to come up with any reports on BOX. I did listen to their conference call. As far as the industry, I have only looked at TAL ( 3X BOX market cap ) and CAP ( only slightly larger, 1.1 BOX market cap ) CAP pays no dividend. TAL div. % is higher than BOX, with their payout ratio about 5% higher also. I don't know where Yahoo gets their PEG ratios of BOX 1.61, CAP .89, and TAL .87. Must be BOX isn't going to increase earnings through 2013 as their current PE is roughly even with projections for CAP and TAL. Guess that is the bet. One point of the conference call was that they could lease containers as fast as they could get them, which was not fast enough. Seems there is/was a backup for everyone. Note both are well below current targets for what that is worth: CAP $29 and TAL $40. A rising tide floats all boats? TAL from CS: Stock Yielding ~5%. TAL boosted its Q1 dividend to $0.50 (up from $0.45 in Q4). The payout ratio was ~56% in Q1 (down 3% Q-Q). We expect management to continue to balance fleet growth with dividend increases with a focus on fleet growth given the attractive returns (14-15% cash on cash returns) being generated on new box leases. ¦ Its Still A Spread Business. New box prices are estimated at $2,800 down from a peak of about $2,900. Not surprisingly the drop in box prices has put downward pressure on lease rates – this should be expected given the tight correlation with lease rates and box prices. ¦ Increasing Target Price to $40 (from $38). Our $40 target price is based on applying an 11x PE multiple to our 2012 EPS estimate of $3.43 (from $3.50) plus a $3/share benefit from TALs tax deferred status. Our 2012 pretax EPS estimate is $5.10 which translates to an 8x PE multiple. We are also increasing our 2011 EPS estimate to $3.33 (from $3.15). The earnings revisions were driven by changes to fleet growth and gains on containers. Year 12/10A 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 2.15 3.33 3.43 3.55 P/E (x) 17.0 11.0 10.7 10.3 CAP: Our Thoughts: CAI posted another strong quarter driven by continued strong demand for new boxes. We expect the combination of strong demand for new and old boxes to keep utilization and container gains strong. We continue to expect management to take advantage of its strong balance sheet to purchase new boxes which should drive above average fleet growth into next year. We reiterate our Outperform rating on CAI. Increasing EPS estimates. We are increasing our 2011 EPS estimate to $2.23 (from $2.00). The upwards earnings revisions are driven by better than expected gains on equipment in Q1 and expectations of a continued strong secondary market for used containers in 2011. Additionally we lowered our D&A expenses related to the asset write-ups. Year 12/10A 12/11E 12/12E 12/13E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 1.48 2.23 2.47 2.87 P/E (x) 18.2 12.0 10.8 9.3

To: E_K_S who wrote (9412)	7/18/2011 12:53:15 PM
From: JimisJim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

I still think WM is a winner and good diversification play in a divvy PF -- as long as they don't cut divvy and continue increasing, I don't really care about downgrades or share price dips because ultimately, as long as the divvy keeps going up, I end up with more shares on the downgrades and price dips. Company has a wide, wide moat and is on the cutting edge wrt converting their fleet to ng fuel (clean and cheaper than gasoline or diesel)... their recycling programs etc. also becoming a standard for the industry... plus, they pick up my trash and recycling (curbside, no extra charge) already and I like the "rebate" from owning shares in the company my trash collectors work for and for which I pay a monthly fee to the city. Jim