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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AnthonyD who wrote (43326)	7/14/2011 3:23:15 PM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78634

Anthony - this sounds like a steep drop. I am sure you are aware that Silver is produced mostly a byproduct in mines that have another primary product. As such, you only get the natural decline (which usually is alleviated by mine extension projects if prices are favorable) but not the inevitable by-production of Silver that results from the startup of mines targeted other ores. Since silver is a byproduct, it's going to be difficult to estimate the silver production from mines starting up, but I am sure it's going to be substantial. As such, i think your estimate overshoots on the production decline.

To: AnthonyD who wrote (43326)	7/16/2011 8:21:11 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78634

you say silver is hyped now. everything is relative. silver has gone from $4 to $38 in the last few years, a lot of people have done very well myself included. however i also remember 30 years when silver was $8 and i thought it was mispriced then. it just goes to show you that a small market can manipulated for decades. now i dont know how youve mined the data and whether you are accounting for production increases as well. dont forget some of those large mining companies have presold much of their future silver production to silver wheaton. also my own sad experience as an investor has been that meeting future production and cost forcasts are far from being a slam dunk. All the being said the biggest factor in the future pricing of silver is that with the advent of a chinese metals exchange it may become much more difficult to manipulate the price of precious metals going forward and this may both increase speculative demand and force the shorts to cover their positions. The other major factor in play here is that investor need to diversify out of currency based investments. the major source of diversification used to be real estate. that has gone by the wayside now. Anecdotally, I have been talking up silver on this thread and to my friends since 2008 i think when it was about $10 and there have been relatively few people interested here and none of my friends. I practically begged one of my best friends to buy silver wheaten at $14 but they never did. I also suggested to a couple of my friends that they try to purchase the 2010 atb silver bullion sets, but no interest there either. My guess is that when silver hits $50 again it will start to get some mainstream media attention. most likely that it is a bubble.