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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (2138)	11/17/1997 6:26:00 PM
From: Van Vo	Respond to of 6180

fyi.- investorama.com

To: JMD who wrote (2138)	11/17/1997 8:25:00 PM
From: JP	Respond to of 6180

JMD, The thinking of TI management is that sooner or later demand for DRAM will spike back, and when it does there will be significant profits to be reaped - enough profits to justify holding on to the capability during this long down cycle. The JV's are limiting the effect on the bottom line to a large degree, so the risk is worth the large potential reward. JP

To: JMD who wrote (2138)	11/19/1997 6:41:00 AM
From: otter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6180

Mike, I understand the analogy, but 'negative energy' on this thread about DRAMS notwithstanding, I'm a DP manager - not an engineer & so my perspective is at that level. First - the negative energy thing. In addition to all the posts about DRAMS being a drag on TXN, there have also been a number of posts attempting to put a balance to that question. Truth, as opposed to emotion, is out there somewhere. Second. the DRAM market is highly cyclical - prices completely subject to the laws of supply and demand. When memory oversupply occurs - and prices do drop - as has happened twice in the last 18 or so months - TI loses money..... of course. What is going to happen with this memory oversupply corrects itself?? (It probably will, you know.......) Well, IMO, assuming that TI is NOT out of the DRAM business, then one would think that some level of profitability would return to that product line - at least until oversupply occurs again. The question is - it that going to be meaningful? Well, given TI's strategy to reduce exposure..... any upside potential would be reduced to a degree just as the downside when oversupply occurs is being reduced.... But, what I haven't heard in all the noise is any meaningful analysis in this area. The 50,000 foot opinion..... Computers are being sold right and left. Prices are falling through the floor. Sub-$1k systems are going out the door as fast as they come in. 1. All those systems have memory in them, and 2. They are going to need to be upgraded at some point in time. Memory is one of those upgrades. Moreover, going forward, there is also a memory upgrade market for all those systems I and people like me bought this year and last. In January, 1996, I was buying 16mb 133s. Later, they were 32mb 133s. Today, I'm upgrading those 133s & our tests show that the best bang for the $ is not microprocessors, but memory. The system I'm using now started life @16mb. Went to 48mb earlier this year. Now at 96. I'm not unhappy with it. Third, it seems to me that a question you're asking is whether or not its better to shut down a line now and take a writeoff - or let it bleed a while as it and the people are being (oh, what....) redeployed? A business person would do the former if the infrastructure involved couldn't be redeployed - the latter if they could. The evidence suggests the latter - cost to retool and redeploy assets as the less costly of the two alternatives. Perhaps a TI person might be able to answer that question. I assume that TI is taking the position that results in least overall exposure.... But then again, I have no information to support it.

To: JMD who wrote (2138)	11/19/1997 7:06:00 AM
From: otter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6180

Mike, re. the negative energy thing you discussed. Yes, it exists; and probably for the same reason that on the INTC thread, any negative comments are shouted down. These threads attract both information seekers and prosthyletizers. The INTC thread is filled with the latter who shout down anybody with a negative opinion about that company. Here, we seem to have a few negative people also. The difference in style seems to be that instead of discussion (shouting down somebody is a form of discussion..... not good, but still....)and dialog, pronouncements are made - sometimes with supporting information. Sometimes without. Sometimes with information that may or may not support the contention. Agendas are as evident here as is elsewhere. At the end of the day, you have to make your own decisions. My recommendation is that you take no comments posted on this or any thread at face value, but do your own DD - even to the extent of reviewing the past posts (on this thread and on others) of people whose comments might otherwise have meaning for you.