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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (943)	11/17/1997 7:22:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

good point.. me..(I guess I should start checking for what the Japanese propose this time around)..I thought they were crazy when they raised taxes.. I am hoping they are going to propose a lot of infrastructure etc.. and higher taxes on interest from foreign bond holdings(don't think Rubin might like that one but it might help out Greenspan passing the hot potato.) :> among other things..

To: Roebear who wrote (943)	11/18/1997 7:56:00 PM
From: Albert V	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1911

Read this. An analysis. When floating interest rates were devised in the 1970s, after the collapse of the bretton woods agreements, economists assumed that all currencies would self correct, meaning that any country that exported a lot would see it dollar appreciate versus its trading partners, and this would reduce demand for its products. Likewise, any country running a current accounts deficit would see its currency depreciate, as its dollars were repatriated back to its country in increasing amounts. Thus, it would then again be able to increase its exports and decrease its imports ,therefore the problem is self correcting. Unfortunately, they did not consider what would happen if the importing country was running a huge goverment fiscal debt as well as a trade debt. What is happening now between these countries, namely Japan and Asia, and the USA, is that they are taking there surplus dollars, and instead of converting it into yen, which would drive up their currency, they are buying up U.S. bonds. As long as they do this in increasing amounts, to compensate for export outflow, the dollar remains overvalued and they get rich at our expense. The recent problems in Asia and Japan make one think. Japanese banks, sitting on a huge pile of debt left over from the real estate crash there, and now faced with non- payings loans coming from all over SE Asia, what will they do? today's paper said that the 10th largest bank in Japan went belly up yesterday. As they and the rest of Asia own such a huge chunk of the US debt (their buying of which coincedently helped keep US interest rates low, inflating the stock market) What will happen when they start cashing in their bonds and not buying new ones(net withdrawals)? One would think that interest rates would shoot to the moon, to attract new capital, and that the stock market would get killed in the process. High consumer debt levels at home should not be forgotten about also. How will people refinance their homes at such high rates? and while their stock portfolios and pension plans trading at pittances? The economy will contract BIGTIME. I and others need investment advice. Aside from taking out long running mortgages, what is the best investment, speculative, that one can make? Here are my choices: 1. Buy a put on a futures market stock index 2. Buy a call on a gold future 3. Buy a call on a TBILL future, or similar vehicle 4. Buy a gold stock. 5. Short a bank stock Gold is tricky. Despite all the demand in excess of supply, Central Banks have huge reserves, and with the financial difficulties they might be big sellers. WHAT DO YOU THINK WHICH IS THE BEST MONEY MAKING VEHICLE IN TERMS OF RETURNS AND CHANCES??/?!!!!! Let me, and others, know. Albert