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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: badi_ who wrote (43605)	7/29/2011 10:25:37 AM
From: armi	1 Recommendation Respond to of 78471

Unless you tried it out with real money and can prove real results with this strategy, you'll have a hard time convincing anyone. Its completely different to invest in a stock via play money vs. real money.

To: badi_ who wrote (43605)	7/29/2011 11:47:12 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78471

Either your portfolio is weighted or your calculations of the return are not correct. You have 22 100% losses for companies that went kaput. If your portfolio is not weighted (investment in every company was the same), you need at least 22 gains of 353%+100% to cover the losses AND get to your 353% return. Actually, you need even more, but I am being conservative. However, in Message 27525701 where you listed best performing stocks of the portfolio, there are only four stocks that exceed 353% and only one stock that exceeds 453% gain. So obviously you either weighed the portfolio or you miscalculated (again). I will guess that you miscalculated, because otherwise you had to hugely overweigh the 4 stocks that showed 300%+ return to get to your 353% result. So check your math please. ;) Overall, I still don't believe your approach is in any way related to value investing. And it's not clear to me what you are doing on this thread except trying to sell your paper returns.

To: badi_ who wrote (43605)	7/29/2011 1:06:23 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78471

I agree with Jurgis Bekepuris. Really, this is a value investing thread wherein we essentially want to identify value stocks and explore value opportunities. From what I understand, you have a unique way of looking at stocks that incorporates the black swans. I don't know what your objective is -- you haven't actually make money buying stocks you've identified with your methodology, because you apparently are a student with not enough financial resources . You either need to convince someone or some people to try your ideas and spread the word. Or else write a book. I like that idea. That would get you noticed, maybe on tv, maybe help your consulting business. There are occasionally a few investing books that come out at just the right time to capture the public's fancy. For me, that'd be something like Beardstown Ladies, or Gorilla&King Investing. "Black Swan Investing" might be a timely write. Jmo. Not that I concur with any of your stock picks or investing methodology. I have no idea what your buying criteria are. You haven't clarified a selling strategy. Your website offers a representative sample of stocks, although your buy suggestion is at least 150 stocks. Everything is theoretical: you coulda made money "if".

To: badi_ who wrote (43605)	8/2/2011 12:25:20 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78471

I'd be interested to know your exact parameters for picking Black Swan stocks. It seems at least partially subjective, but maybe that is my misunderstanding. For awhile I watched the large daily down movers of stocks. Arguably there are many stocks that over-react to the downside on some bad news. But I figured I could not quickly figure out enough about unfamiliar stocks to make a practice of looking over those stocks. I am a little intrigued by binary stocks. By this, I mean stocks that will either do well, or go out of business or nearly go out of business. A stock in bankruptcy reorganization or a stock with it welfare dependent on a lawsuit is an example, or for that matter a small cap stock that has put everything into development of a drug. If you do your analysis, you can find some good buys with these. But my impression is that to buy a field of these stocks would not be productive.