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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (6027)	11/18/1997 8:55:00 AM
From: John Kratus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Steve: "freelaod factor"--great phrase. But I thought AOL charges $19.95 a month. Where does the $17 figure come from? Dividing last quarter's revenue by $19.95 per month times 3 months equals 7.25M paying customers. In my opinion the recent run-up in AOL was necessary, because the exit doors were clogged with institutions trying to sell, and they had to engineer a rise so that they could sell some more. Watch the institutional ownership next month. I bet it won't be 70%+ anymore. John

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (6027)	11/18/1997 9:37:00 AM
From: Harry Larson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

If you do the division with the precise amount $17.37 as reported by AOL to analysts in the earnings conference call, you get 8.3 million. As pespective, this says that average paying subs in Q4 was less than the 8.6 million subs with which AOL said it began the quarter.

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (6027)	11/20/1997 11:26:00 PM
From: Art Stone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Case said AOL got about $17 per subscriber per month. With this quarter's service revenues at $434,167,000 devided by $51 ($17x3mo), I get 8,513,078 paying customers compared to the 9.4 million they stated as their actual customer count at the time. That's about 90.56% of the total or a 9.435% freeload factor. An adjustment to your calculations. The 8.513 million customers would be the average for the quarter, and the 9.4 million is at the end-of-quarter, which clears up most (perhaps all) of the difference.