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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (43685)	8/3/2011 1:35:13 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78717

Big shopping day: Brk.B, more GLW and TOT, a tad of JNS and my a little of own black swan stock PNSN. PNSN is a stock that had earnings issues for a while (mostly due to low interest rates) and recently accounting issues. From what I can glean, it seems that they should survive, unless there is a mass flight of their customers.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (43685)	2/13/2012 10:05:22 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78717

I purchased some Taiyo Nippon Sanso 4091.t last night at 511Yen. The stock appears cheap based on PE (~11) and EV/EBITDA. This position is currency hedged. I like the industrial gas business in general, because based on my personal work related observations, customers are pretty much locked in and new production processes often demand more expensive gases. Taiyo Nippon Sanso is the leading gas supplier in Japan and they are strong in semiconductor gases used for CVD (MOCVD gases etc.) 30% of their business is now overseas (US and strong bridgeheads in Vietnam and Phillipines). They are weak in China still but investing there too. ROA is very low but they have a lot of depreciation and their balance sheet has improved the last 2 years. I am betting that they ROA will improve over time (they stated this goal in Y2011 annual report) but we have to see. The stock is near a multi year low, partly because the valuation was reset and because their operating earnings were somewhat below forecast (per 2/8/2012 announcement). Still, I think 4091.T is the only cheap way to buy a industrial gas company right now, as others are deservedly valued at least at mid teens PE's. Based on my observation, the closes US peer would be Praxair, or in Europe Air Liquide. (Air products and Linde are more on the industrial and less on the semiconductor side). investing.money.msn.com