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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (11459)	8/8/2011 5:45:21 PM
From: brokenst0nes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

Jacob, did you consider buying into TAN directly? Granted its more a play on FSLR being the largest component, but also a bunch of polysilicon makers and manufacturing equipment companies, with a smaller percentage spread over the chinese panel guys. guggenheimfunds.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (11459)	8/20/2011 12:35:46 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

YGE 2Q11: GM 22%, compared to 27% 1Q11, and 33% for 2010. EPS GAAP $0.36; compared to $0.35 1Q11 rev 681M$, up from 527M$ 1Q11 manufacturing cost, non-silicon: $0.72/w (was 0.74 in 2Q10) Debt rising, interest rates rising, interest expenses rising: As of June 30, 2011, the Company had an aggregate of RMB 12,144.9 million (US$1,879.0 million) borrowings, medium-term notes and convertible notes, an increase of 18.5% from RMB 10,245.4 million as of March 31, 2011. The weighted average interest rate for these borrowings was 6.44% in the second quarter of 2011, an increase from 5.72% in the first quarter of 2011. but adequate cash: As of June 30, 2011, Yingli Green Energy had RMB 7,063.4 million (US$1,092.8 million) in cash and restricted cash, compared to RMB 6,038.3 million as of March 31, 2011. With the significantly increased shipments, we managed...to expand our global market share... ...expect to capture nearly 15% of the North American solar market in 2011... Guidance for 3Q11: gross margins "mid to high teens"; MW shipped up "high twenties %" from 2Q11; continue running at 100% capacity utilization "we’re expected to see a mid-to-high teen percentage decrease in ASP" "we’re seeing lower pricing points that are bringing in the elasticity of the demand" poly costs: "it still declines when we move to the third quarter by roughly mid-to-high 20% from Q2 to Q3. And we also expect a mid single-digit decline from Q3 to Q4" Guidance for 2011: 1725MW to be shipped. No guidance for revenues, EPS, gross margin. Guidance for 2012: none Manufacturing capacity: repeated prior guidance of 1.7GW end-2011, and then "beyond that we haven’t announced any further expansion projects" poly cost to "move down to $25 to $30 in 2013" ir.yinglisolar.com seekingalpha.com corporate-ir.net my comment: 1. One reason Chinese solars have such low valuations, is their very skimpy guidance. 2. gross margins will continue to fall, into 3Q11. ASPs haven't hit bottom yet, and continue to fall much faster than manufacturing costs are falling. 3. reducing ST debt ought to be a higher priority, than increasing manufacturing capacity, for Yingli 4. they are gradually diversifying their market, away from Germany, into U.S. and China. China will go from 4% of rev in 2010, to 15% in 2011 5. flat EPS, with rev up and margins down, is better than most solars are doing. Actually, simply managing to make a GAAP profit, puts them ahead of most of the industry, given current conditions.