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Technology Stocks : BORL: Time to BUY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Gibson who wrote (7472)	11/18/1997 11:54:00 AM
From: Elliot W	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10836

VSGN's price is tied to BORL's price not the other way around. Once things settle down VSGN should track BORL. Your post about BORL being at 8.75 (I think) shows that you may be thinking BORL is using all its current shares to buy VSGN. No, it's going to print some shares (like our gov't) and buy VSGN with them. There is no reason to assume that Borland won't move higher, although it seems that lots of traders think Borland is going to stay down for a time. Elliot

To: Jack Gibson who wrote (7472)	11/18/1997 12:23:00 PM
From: John	Respond to of 10836

<<Right now BORL is at 10 9/16 and VSGN is at 7 13/16. At .89 BORL shares for each share of VSGN, BORL woud need to drop to 8.75 (appx), orovided that VSGN held at 7 13/16, before reaching a break even point for a holder of VSGN>> Jack its not .89 its .81988 which means the break even point is 7.8125/.81988 = 9.52 This is all IMHO of course. I might have no idea what I am talking about. I think normal arbitrage tactics would be Short BORL and Buy enough VSGN to cover at the discount price. This locks in the % diff you are seeing, and you just have to hold until the merger to get your profit. The reasons for the discount are the merger might fall apart, or the share ratio could be re-adjusted if something extrodinary happens. (ex. SSW's buyout of Knowledgeware a few years back - after SSW looked at the books they decided Knowledgeware was worth about half what they were paying and changed the ratio, Knowledgewares price plunged 40%). Also, there is a time premium involved which will narrow as we get closer to the merger date. JV.

To: Jack Gibson who wrote (7472)	11/18/1997 1:01:00 PM
From: Ghassan I. Ghandour	Respond to of 10836

Jack - Yes, you are missing something very important. Unlike the acquisition of OPEN, last year, this action buy Borland will have to be ratified (accepted) by the shareholders and this includes ML (M Lynch) acting on behalf of its clients and others. In this sense, the deal is far from being certain. Anybody dumpimg BORL to buy VSGN, at this point is taking a risk to see the deal not going through, hence the present price of VSGN. On the other hand, Borland is going to have one earnings report, in the meantime, before the acquisition is made. Maybe Dell is expecting a blockbuster earnings for this quarter in which case the acquisition would not affect the price of BORL which will be in the 12 to 13 by January-February as I stated often earlier on this board. The market action today is not all the result of the news (I say this provided the stock holds above 10 which I think it would). The stock would probably backslided anyway as it often did after printing a new 52 weeks high and as the news of the release of JB C/S came out (some selling on the news). Moreover, there is this news about Visual Cafe obtaining PC Magazine's award, at Comdex, ahead of Borland. This alone could have produced such a slide in the price of BORL. I am of the opinion that we should trust Dell and maybe look at this as a buying opprtunity. One should also have a careful look at the balance sheet for VSGN, especially its cash/debt situation as it lost $0.25 cents in its last announced quarter. Still GO BORL... Ghassan. P.S. I told you BORL could close at 10 to 10 1/4 on expiration day, didn't I?

To: Jack Gibson who wrote (7472)	11/18/1997 1:52:00 PM
From: Paul Corbett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10836

It seems a percentage player would be better off to buy VSGN than BORL. It probably doesn't make sense (due to commissions etc)) to sell BORL and buy VSGN, but for somebody who wanted a cheap entry into BORL then this is a good way. Suppose BORL's true value is about $11 a share (which is my guess as to its value) then this means if you can get VSGN for less than $8.9 then you are getting discounted entry. As it is currently trading at $7.5 approx, you are getting a good 20% discount to what BORL is worth. The danger is of course that the deal will unravel but it does not look like it here.