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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (6231)	8/11/2011 3:55:20 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

In October 1982, Bob made his ALL IN CALL ("Now is the time to be fully invested") at DOW 777 that turned out to be the beginning of a SECULAR BULL MARKET. However, the low of the 1966-82 Secular Bear occurred at a much lower level in 1976. In 1982, inflation rates and interest rates were peaking and THERE WAS REAL HOPE with the new pro-business President Reagan that the damage done by the previous administration was now going to be fixed. Today, interest rates and inflation are at lows and much Global de-leveraging is needed. Until there are sure signs that a credible fix to the damage done and imbalances created in the economy is on the horizon, I would expect the Secular Bear to continue. I say if one is lucky enough to call a market bottom and buy in significantly at that low, one has to consider oneself EXTREMELY LUCKY. Taking the long view of Bob's luck, it's quite clear that Bob's methodologies for calling market turns do not always work in getting followers out of the market within 5% of the high and back into the market within 5% of the low (his stated goal). When they don't work, it's clear Bob's Plan B is to dollar-cost-average, especially on market weakness. JMHO P