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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (53246)	8/14/2011 9:49:27 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95572

Lots of charts there. I'm not sure what is crucial, and what can be safely ignored. re LT Nas chart: <actual bottoms rarely come at the highest VIX spike> No, but they come fairly close. The 2008 and 2009 Nas lows were really a double bottom (close enough), and the VIX peaked at the 2008 low (if I'm looking at the chart correctly). For the S&P500, one key factor in me starting to go long on 8/8, was the VIX spiking to the same level as in the mid-2010 correction. A VIX spike may precede the stock low, but IMO it's a good place to start buying. I think it can safely be said, stock lows can't happen without a VIX spike (with the VIX coincident or leading). And the height of the VIX spike (compared to previous VIX spikes) should inform our certainty, about how durable the low is. The higher the VIX spike, the longer the stock low should last. But I gave up trying to pick exact bottoms years ago. Now, I just try to buy in a range, and call it a success if the range includes the bottom.