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Politics : Peak Oil reality or Myth, of an out of Control System -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dvdw© who wrote (526)	8/16/2011 10:26:43 PM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 1580

One of the great opportunities for China Inc money would be to back this project, subsequently, the demand from both east and west of central could be engineered to capture the transition to export of lower cost oil and gas to economies both west and east. China hold trillions of dollars that are only as good as thier potential when repatirated. CNOC has a deal with CHK for the Niobrarra, this project would enable the capital already spent to be extrapolated into high margin products.... while most may not see this as strategic, it is totally strategic under the variable time shapes of capital. are we worried that the message will get delivered? no, we are not.....bandwidth is a variable....the control mechanisms inputting into its outcomes have obligations to pre existing claims which by the way are subject to systemic malfeasance.

To: dvdw© who wrote (526)	8/22/2011 7:24:09 AM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1580

Hyperion really does make sense especially because of the convoluted logics present in the present. Post below is full of good data points, but shows no awareness of a fully characterized multi valued reference space, Time Shapes of Capital demands. To: CommanderCricket who wrote (155786) 8/21/2011 10:53:25 PM From: raybiese 5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 155867 Message 27584941 Impact of XL & WTI price on SU, COS, etc and US Gasoline prices: Some personal critical thinking with some detail. A conversation: "Very simple game. Three cups, one pea. Follow the pea. Find the pea and you win!" "Simple? How can it be simple with all this freakin' noise everywhere?" "That's the point. Follow the pea." First, let me skip to the end. Here is a short set of my personal take-aways: -XL: Verleger gets it. Follow the money. "but the point is to bring more supply to the market to keep Gulf Coast crude prices low—significantly lower, in fact, than the global price of oil." -WTI & gasoline prices: Gasoline & refined products in the USA are 'world priced' and WTI is irrelevant. -WTI & crack spreads: mid-continent crack spreads will adjust so that refined product matches world prices. -WTI & Canadian Crude: Cushing oversupply has been enhanced to maximise crack spread on Cdn crudes but may 'ease up' a bit on WTI-Brent but not on heavy-light differentials. Purpose: I am attempting to cut through the 'shield of noise' to try to figure out what to do with my energy investments. This needs some critical thinking and some 'the devil is in the details' digging. I hope this board accepts this for what it is.... my attempt to pan for the nuggets within a lot of silt & gravel. Cushing really is about supply and demand. Cushing crude is "supply/demand controlled" in a "buyers market". Refined products are "supply/demand controlled" but in a "global market". Most of the US fuel consumption is serviced by port facilities. Refined product is easily arbitraged globally once waterborne. I would bet that gasoline in Tulsa OK would be tankered elsewhere in the USA if the price differential was greater than say $0.15~$0.20 per gallon. Example: Tulsa retail gasoline: $3.43. Nationwide: $3.58 tulsaworld.com Scale of impact: max $0.20/gal x 42 gal/bbl= max $8.40/bbl. Nope. Not a huge issue A simplistic anecdote of a current fact of life. Arbitrage is an efficient equalizer-by land or sea. The rest is noise. Bottom line: -US refined product (including gasoline) prices are determined by world price with a 'transport' adjustment. -Right now, WTI is irrelevant to the price of gasoline in the USA. -Any analysis linking WTI to the price of fuel is just noise. Back to: Cushing crude is "supply/demand controlled" in a "buyers market". Plenty of noise here... WTI, land-locked, waterborne, crude grades, Canadian crude imports, Keystone, Bakken, Keystone XL, Brent-WTI differentials, heavy-sour, light sweet, LLS-WTI, and on & on.... Let's dig deeper.... As Sgt Friday really said: "All we want are the facts." PADD II refiners have raised the crack spread. Last month NYMEX crack spreads were well above $30/bbl. Have a peek at the refining reports that Dennis Roth generously provides links to. Look for the graphs that show refining crack spreads. Here's an example: