Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (496)	9/2/2011 11:24:53 AM
From: Geoff Altman	2 Recommendations Respond to of 85487

Thanks..... IMO, this thread has gotten off to a promising start and will allow for an outlet that neither PfP or VfC provide but is sorely needed. I've been wanting to throw in my 2 cents but, alas, work isn't allowing me the time.......

To: Murrey Walker who wrote (496)	9/2/2011 11:32:04 AM
From: Sdgla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 85487

This before Perry's push ... the Hank Stram of elections. Despite weak economy, history professor's system predicts Obama 'very strong' for reelection By GEORGE BENNETTPalm Beach Post Staff Writer Updated: 11:55 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, 2011 Posted: 11:24 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 20, 2011 Post a Comment E-mail Print Share Larger Type Persistently high unemployment and anemic economic growth would seem to bode ill for the re-election prospects of a president whose party once popularized the saying, "It's the economy, stupid." President Obama underscored the economy's high political stakes last week as he stressed economic themes during a campaign-style bus tour and promised to unveil a major jobs initiative in September. But even if the economy doesn't improve over the next 15 months, political historian Allan Lichtman says, more than 150 years of electoral precedent make Obama a "very strong" favorite for re-election in 2012. Lichtman is an American University history professor who has successfully forecast the popular-vote winner in every election since 1984 using a system called "13 Keys to the Presidency." He says Obama has enough historical factors in his favor that even a dreaded double-dip recession probably wouldn't be enough to put a Republican in the White House. Only two of Lichtman's 13 presidential keys deal specifically with the economy. "Lots of other things affect a presidential election result," Lichtman says. "The economy is a big piece of it, but not the only piece." Consumer confidence iffy That's probably good news for Obama. Although the president inherited a historically troubled economy, and frequently reminds audiences of it, some indicators have worsened since Obama was inaugurated. Unemployment rose from 7.8 percent when Obama took office to 10.1 percent in October 2009 and stood at 9.1 percent in July. The private sector has 1.1 million fewer jobs - and the overall economy about 1.6 million fewer jobs - than in February 2009, when Obama and congressional Democrats approved a $787 billion economic stimulus that the White House said would save or create 3.5 million jobs. The recession that began in December 2007 under former President George W. Bush officially ended in mid-2009, but the recovery has been weak. The economy grew at a 0.4 percent rate in the first quarter of 2011 and 1.3 percent in the second quarter. Obama's presidency is at roughly the same stage that one-term Democrat Jimmy Carter's was in the summer of 1979 when he bemoaned a national "crisis of confidence" in what became known as the "malaise" speech. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July 1979 was 81.4. It was 59.5 last month, though that figure is considerably better than the 37.4 score when Obama took office. The Consumer Confidence Index was 65.6 in November 1992, when Republican George H.W. Bush lost his re-election bid to Democrat Bill Clinton. It was during that campaign that Clinton strategist James Carville said, "It's the economy, stupid." Lichtman says presidential elections, including the 1992 contest, are not as simple as Carville's epigram. "George Bush would have won in '92 if not for (third-party candidate Ross) Perot. It wasn't just the economy," Lichtman says. Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok, an expert in mathematical models for predicting earthquakes, developed the presidential keys in 1981 after analyzing elections dating to 1860. If six or more of the 13 keys turn against an incumbent president or the candidate whose party controls the White House, the challenger will win, Lichtman says. The keys include foreign policy successes and failures, whether there has been significant scandal or social unrest during a president's term, whether a president or challenger is "charismatic or a national hero," whether the party out of the White House has made gains in Congress and whether the president faces a serious challenge in the primary or a third-party rival in the general election. Most keys still positive One of the economic keys is a short-term measure of whether the economy is in a recession during the presidential campaign. Lichtman's second economic key is a long-term measure of whether economic growth in the current administration has exceeded growth during the previous eight years. The economy can influence some of the other keys in his system, Lichtman says. A bad economy might contribute to social unrest, a primary challenge to the president or the rise of a third-party candidate. GOP congressional gains in 2010 were largely fueled by the economy, Lichtman says. To be sure, some of Lichtman's measures are subjective. Lichtman rated the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a foreign policy success for George W. Bush in 2003 when he correctly predicted Bush would be re-elected the following year. He considered Obama a "charismatic" figure in 2008, but says the charisma has probably worn off for 2012. By Lichtman's estimation, only three of the 13 keys are currently turned against Obama as he approaches 2012: the charisma factor, lack of long-term economic growth and the Republican gains in the 2010 midterm elections. A fourth key could turn against Obama if the economy lapses into another recession. But under Lichtman's system that wouldn't be enough, by itself, to tilt the election to the GOP. Says Lichtman: "The keys are often contrary to the conventional wisdom." Keys to the White House The 13 keys that American University professor Allan Lichtman uses are statements favoring re-election of the incumbent party. Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular-vote winner of each presidential election since 1984. Here are the keys, along with Lichtman's judgment of how President Obama measures up. How to interpret the keys If five or fewer of the keys are false: Incumbent party wins. If six or more of the keys are false: Challenging party wins. KEY 1: Party mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE KEY 2: Nomination contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE KEY 3: Incumbency The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE KEY 4: Third party There is no significant third-party/independent campaign. TRUE KEY 5: Short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. UNKNOWN KEY 6: Long-term economy Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE KEY 7: Policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE KEY 8: Social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE KEY 9: Scandal The incumbent administration is free of major scandal. TRUE KEY 10: Foreign/military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE KEY 11: Foreign/military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE KEY 12: Incumbent charisma The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE KEY 13: Challenger charisma The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE