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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (157136)	9/21/2011 5:15:11 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206085

SU: Suncor, a leveraged bet on oil prices, with huge reserves: I like the Oil Majors, for their dividend. But, given their inability to replace reserves, I worry about their future ability to grow profits, dividends, and stock price. I like XOM's move into natgas, but it isn't enough. This makes me consider stocks like SU and CHK. Enterprise value / EBITA similar: 5.3 XOM 5.1 RDSA 5.3 SU From a current production base of roughly 500,000 barrels a day Suncor is planning to hit 1 million barrels a day by 2020. That is a CAGR of about 8% per year. Suncor doesn’t have to go out and find new oil reserves in order to create this growth. There is no exploration risk....7 billion barrels of 2P reserves against a 59 billion enterprise value is around $8 per barrel... 20 billion barrels of contingent resourves Growth will mainly come from Suncor's in situ projects (Firebag Stages 3 through 6 and the second stage of MacKay River), investments, as well as ongoing production in international and offshore operations. The C$1.75 billion strategic partnership with French oil major Total, to jointly develop the Fort Hills and Joslyn oil sands mining projects, will also play a critical role. They even own windmills....or at least have a picture of a windmill in their Investor Presentation. Nice touch. SU's 5Y range is $14-$72, now at $28. I'm considering starting to buy, when we take out the 2010 low, and we're almost there. I'd plan on having a full position, if we get down to the 2008 low. In general, my plan is to have full positions in a variety of energy stocks, as they approach their recession lows. SU is, tentatively, the substitute for CCJ on that list. info from: SU investor relations suncor.com Company presentation, giving roadmap to 2020: suncor.com seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (157136)	7/23/2013 6:54:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	2 Recommendations Recommended By calaban48 Dennis Roth Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206085

SU, Suncor: 6.9 billion barrels of reserves (proved and probable) 549,100/Boe per day, 2012 production rate = 200m boe/year Production is projected to grow to 689Mboe/d by 2017 $4.52 billion cash and cash equivalents $10.08 billion long-term debt Stock: $14 to $46 to $32 = 2008 low to 2011 high to today 2.5% dividend yield = ($0.20 X 4)/32 ; dividend will increase to $0.20/quarter in 2Q13 2.3% = decline in share count, end-2011 to end-2012 49B$ market cap 39B$ rev in 2012 0.6-2.3 = P/S range 5Y, now 1.3 gross margins stable in 50-60% range debt/equity 0.29 Production growth constraints: Average price realizations for bitumen declined significantly over the prior year quarter reflecting the widening discount of WCS (Western Canadian Select) relative to WTI due to lower demand for bitumen and limited takeaway capacity... The Fort Hills project has received approval for a first phase of 160,000Mbls/d. Suncor, the operator of the project, said that the oil sands mine has to be found economical before it will sign off on a final investment decision on the joint venture with French oil giant Total... According to the company's Chief Financial Officer Bart Demosky, the price differential between bitumen and West Texas crude is a hurdle and it will continue to be until it becomes easier to move the product... Owns and operates four refineries for a combined capacity of 455,000Bls/d, a lubricants plant, and a network of more than 1500 retail businesses. Current production at 4 sites: Surface mining is being done at Millennium and North Steepbank by using large trucks and shovels to extract the oil sands. Only 20% of all oil sands are close enough to the surface to be mined. In-situ bitumen extracting operations are undertaken at Firebag and Mackay River. ycharts.com seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com