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Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wharf Rat who wrote (2144)9/19/2011 10:14:14 PM
From: Nadine Carroll5 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 85487
 
According to Revkin, the Big Government piece is a classic example of what could be called "single-study syndrome," which tends to turn up whenever a political agenda is threatened or supported by a specific line of scientific inquiry.

Oh, you mean like the AGW alarmists are reacting to the CERN CLOUD study? These guys have no self-awareness whatsoever, to even write a line like that.

BTW, it's highly misleading rhetoric to dismiss the study because it didn't produce "conclusive evidence" of cosmic rays having an effect on cloud formation. The study was designed to produce evidence in principle, which it did. As Dr. Nir Shaviv said,

The results are very beautiful and they demonstrate, yet again, how cosmic rays (which govern the amount of atmospheric ionization) can in principle have an effect on climate.

What do I mean? First, it is well known that solar variability has a large effect on climate. In fact, the effect can be quantified and shown to be 6 to 7 times larger than one could naively expect from just changes in the total solar irradiance. This was shown by using the oceans as a huge calorimeter (e.g., as described here). Namely, an amplification mechanism must be operating.

As a consequence, anyone trying to understand past (and future) climate change must consider the whole effect that the sun has on climate, not just the relatively small variations in the total irradiance (which is the only solar influence most modelers consider). This in turn implies, that some of the 20th century warming should be attributed to the sun, and that the climate sensitivity is on the low side (around 1 deg increase per CO2 doubling)

motls.blogspot.com

IOW, the models are now obsolete and need updating.