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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44513)	9/22/2011 8:38:47 PM
From: J Mako	Respond to of 78666

PH and DOV look interesting. MRO, Vale - Valuing mining and oil stocks is completely outside my circle of competence. If someone can enlighten me, that'll be great. To some extent, when a resource company is active in exploration (as opposed to simply drawing down its reserves), the value proposition looks more like an option then a value play.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44513)	9/22/2011 11:32:46 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78666

Buys: AXS, DRAGF, EGY, ENI, FCX, GLW, PKX, PMGLF, TX I guess GLW is the only overlap. ;) Some themes are similar though. ;) ~15% cash. Not counting misc cash resources under various mattresses.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44513)	9/27/2011 11:59:43 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78666

Bunge Limited (BG) I missed the most recent BUY point at $55.00/share but you and Paul were able to pick up some very cheap shares. Here is an excellent report that Dennis Roth posted on the Farming Board. ir.citi.com I found this comment of interest: "...Devaluation of the Brazilian Real Represents a Significant Catalyst for Bunge Shares..." The Brazilian Real has undergone a significant devaluation over the past month, and at current rates would represent a 10% devaluation in 2012 relative to 2011. This is beneficial to Bunge’s Brazilian operations, given that the firm has approximately $600 million in local Brazilian costs which are exposed to changes in the Brazilian Real. We note that due to Bunge’s position as an agricultural exporter out of Brazil, the majority of Bunge’s sales are transacted in U.S. dollars, meaning that movements in the Real have no meaningful impact on Bunge’s revenues. However the firm’s cost structure is affected, as Bunge’s local Brazilian production costs (ie labor, energy etc) are exposed to movements in the Real. Consequently, in an environment where the Real is devaluing, Bunge’s local Brazilian costs decline without any offsetting effects from the revenue line, causing profitability to increase. Net, we estimate that every 1% move in the Brazilian Real inversely impacts Bunge’s EPS by 4c/share, and as such see a 40c benefit to Bunge’s 2012E EPS given the 10% devaluation in the Brazilian Real implied for 2012 at current spot rates. Further, Bunge has another $700 million of costs spread across Argentina, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe, that we estimate add an additional 10c of EPS upside because of FX rate movements for 2012. This brings the total FX impact to 50c, of which 40c is captured in our new 2012 estimates...." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- They have an $88.00/share target value for 2012. From their report:"...Our $88 target price utilizes a 12.5x-13.0x multiple range on our 2012 EPS estimate of $7.00, predicated on our belief that while Bunge's earnings are likely to continue growing due to the tight global grain environment, which should benefit Bunge’s grain merchandising operations...." I need to pull the trigger on more shares any time this one moves below $60.00/share. My cost on shares I already own are pretty high at $72.40/share so I have my work cut out to get my avg cost down by 2012 when BG should be reporting good earnings. Your 9/22/2011 Buys seemed to be right on. I picked up VALE, FWLT and GLW but missed probably the most important one, BG. EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44513)	10/1/2011 3:06:56 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78666

Little discussion on mining stocks that have absolutely getting hammered recently on fears of a Chinese slowdown. These stocks are dirt cheap based on current prices. Even if one were to discount metal prices another 20%, the PE ratio would be very low. finance.yahoo.com I own some Vale and a little bit of TC. I believe from the remainder of the list that XTA.L and Rio are the most attractive plays. I would like to hear other opinions. One hears a lot about the Dr Copper, supposedly smart indicator. Copper is used in a lot of constructions but with all those influences from the future exchanges (don't tell me that futures don't matter because there is no physical settlement) I am wondering if anything is a reflection of anything else but expectations of players in the future markets rather than real demand right now. I believe we should look at balance sheet leverage, including cash flow commitments from mining expansion projects, production costs and management quality. What we don't want at this point of the cycle is buy a company that runs out of money and needs to dilute at the bottom like Rio did. I know that BHP (BBL is the cheaper twin) and Vale are very safe from this perspective but I am not quite sure about the others.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (44513)	10/4/2011 3:56:15 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78666

PH: In today for a very few shares. Looks like the opportunity I also wanted to get into this industrial stock. finance.yahoo.com So much going on in the market that I'm just not fast enough, good enough, or confident enough to step in for many of these stocks that are being cast aside. Or to buy in quantity when I do buy. In for a few tracking shares of GEF. finance.yahoo.com "Greif, Inc. engages in the manufacture and sale of industrial packaging products, and containerboard and corrugated products worldwide." Steadily rising stated bv, profitable each of the past ten years, dividend, etc.