To: Redman who wrote (3190 ) 11/19/1997 1:10:00 PM From: Tom L. French Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
redman Thanks for your post. I feel like a bear here, because I keep raising this issue, and maybe I've been reading too much, but here is my reaction. Long term, meaning for this discussion one year or longer, who cannot be a bull. There are many very strong macro trends driving this sector and many economies worldwide. But if there is even a slight short term slowdown in the rate of growth, there might be a slight pullback in this powerful long term up trend. For us, investing in this sector, that can be ugly if we're not going to simply buy and hold. (My impression is that many here are more active than that.) As you suggested this is not an issue of actual fundamentals. It is perception now about some possible future developments that is messing things up. (Weclome to the stock market!) My main interest is when to get back in because from what I can see about near term earnings momentum (next quarter or two) on most of these stocks, there will be tremendous continued earnings strength. BTW, last winter during the correction in this sector there were some steep drops from about 1/13 to 3/3: CDG -45%, MDCO -36%, UTI -32%, CKH -31%, NBR -30%, PTEN -27%, RDC -27%... of the ones I have data on, 15 went down over 20%. (I base this on a search for these two dates and some stocks topped a litter earlier or later--some actually went UP!--so the numbers can be a little off in some cases.) Most of these same stocks have dropped less far in this correction so far, not including today (11/5-11/18): CDG -15%, MDCO -17%, UTI -27%, CKH -12%, NBR -14%, PTEN -29%, RDC -14%. Look at PTEN--I just noticed that! Regards, TomLF