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To: Robert O who wrote (12306)	10/5/2011 1:13:21 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: short tech: I prefer the high-beta techs, like MU and KLIC, to the X2 or X3 ETFs, because all the leveraged ETFs have time decay. Using them for a daytrade, or a holding period of less than a month, is OK, that's what they are for. Using the ETF, you eliminate all company risk, just making a bet on the sector. I do little daytrading. I've tried it, and can't consistently do it profitably, so I quit. For the last year, my holding periods have been usually a week to a couple of months, and that seems to work better for me. I don't follow the DOW, but SPX moves similarly. SPX might stall here, with a new resistance at about 1100-1120. Or it might go up to the 50dma at 1185. Or it could go up to the August-September resistance line at 1220. It's even possible, we could get a bear market rally all the way up to the 200dma at 1278. Even if the trend is down, a short position could lose money, if you aren't willing to hold through the inevitable recurring sharp short rallies. That's why I always do everything in increments. And I rarely use stop-loss orders; instead I usually double my bets, which is a dangerous thing to do.

To: Robert O who wrote (12306)	10/5/2011 1:49:01 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT: Do not do it Robert. Using one of those ETF's is not something you want to do unless you are planning on a day trade only. If you do that then you should only initiate a short trade like that on a gap higher at the open while volatility is low. I agree with Jacob that you are better off trading an individual stock than a double or triple bear ETF. You can get away with being wrong a lot easier. For instance I got into my KLIC long position way too early. What I should have done is waited for the stock to bottom at an RSI nearing 30. But it's going to workout even though I am not going to make as much as I might have hoped. Basically I would expect KLIC to be a good short again if it rises to above an RSI of 50 and briefly above its 50 day sma at the same time that volatility falls at least 10% below its 10 days sma. That's 36.63 or lower for the VIX and a price of 8.48 or so on KLIC Yesterday was a very impressive reversal day. This run will last a bit longer in my opinion. No point in shorting anything until the major indexes are well above 50 RSI's in my humble opinion. siliconinvestor.com RtS