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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (6711)	11/4/2011 4:52:42 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 10065

I think the four companies you mention are outstanding individual holdings. Having had a 22-year career with ChevronTexaco as a professional performing accounting and finance functions, I know first hand that owning their stock is like minting money every quarter with their great dividend compounding in my 401K. The dividends on MO and PM are also outstanding. I agree with the view of the late James Stowers (founder of 20th Century Funds aka American Century Funds). In his out of print book, he was a proponent of owning quality dividend paying companies that can raise prices in times of inflation. I believe that all four of the holdings you specify meet that criteria. Best wishes, P

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (6711)	11/4/2011 6:27:21 PM
From: marc ultra	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10065

I've been analyzing and racking my brains over the ECRI call since they made it and particularly with the run-up in the market and indications of an improved economy. Until their call I saw this as a 1998 scenario with the market as a screaming buy off the 9/22 retest and then did an about-face with the ECRI call. Bob is also overtly comparing this to 1998 and continues to look for substantial gains. I'll note the market rallied strongly for about 2 months after their last 2 recession calls before falling sharply so we'd be looking for a Nov. fall if it followed that pattern. More importantly I looked back at that 1998 and while the market is acting that way, fundamentals are just very different. Fed Funds were around 5 1/4% then and it was aggressive Fed cutting that allowed the market to explode higher. The big issues of the time of Asian contagion, Russian default and then Long term Capital were all able to be taken care of or stabilized. Fed action is tapped out now except for some marginal moves around the edges. Significant fiscal stimulus is mostly off the table now with the Tea Party influenced House and the emphasis in Europe, the US and elsewhere is more about austerity than stimulus so I don't see this as a normal year 3 of a presidential cycle where you can try to bribe your way to reelection. W was able to use an unpaid for medicare prescription drug program to help re-election and allowed increased spending on top of generous tax cuts. That's no longer viable and Obama has to fight just to continue unemployment insurance extensions and payroll tax cuts. The only new possibility is a payroll tax cut on the employer side which is very minor stuff. The infrastructure part is largely dead already. Also I just don't see a lasting viable solution to Europe yet. The central problem remains that Germany is the only one with the money to solve the problem and the German people are dead set against their money being used to bail out profligate fiscally irresponsible countries. The ECB which has to be involved is still not all in and that's apparently due to German influence. So yes the market has been following a 1998 pattern and from the final retest then the market shot pretty much straight up to the 2000 highs. For now I'm still expecting a recession and bear in the not too distant future but my conviction is somewhat less and based 3 straight upticks in the WLI and generally improving data I'll lower the probability to 65% now after having lowered it from 87% to 77% last week.

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (6711)	11/4/2011 9:46:41 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	1 Recommendation Respond to of 10065

On the economy, I don't expect much change either way in the next 12 months J- You could very well be correct but consider the following: People consistently forecast the future by projecting the present. (Generally, the future is nothing like the present.) MGJ

To: joefromspringfield who wrote (6711)	11/7/2011 9:54:13 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Yesterday in his opening monologue in the first hour, Brinker discussed charges against a company that sells gold coins without mentioning the name of the accused company. This is the link to an article that names the charged company and describes such charges. smdp.com Brinker urged listeners interested in buying Gold to avoid buying coins and instead use the GLD Trust etf if they wish to own gold. This way one avoids storage and insurance costs, the risk of physical theft, the high mark-ups on some coins (ie. the collectables). Moreover, current IRS rules related to the taxation of gains on the sale of coins differ from the capital gains taxation rules on securities. Such rules can result in an unexpected surprise in finalizing one's income tax return. I can't believe that all companies that sell gold coins are similar to the charged company. Buyers of gold coins need to first educate themselves as to the difference between rare collectible coins which normally bear a high markup, VS., the gold coins containing a specified weight in gold (ie. 1 TROZ) like the South African Rand, the Canada Maple Leaf etc. which trade with a minimal markup. They also need to remember that during the 1930's, FDR required the confiscation and melting down all owned gold in their fight against deflation and depression. Desperate governments can take desperate measures. From my viewpoint, one needs to learn from the history of how governments deal with extreme inflation or deflation (ie. Argentina...). And then there's the fact that the gold itself is just a physical commodity - it does not generate earnings. Owners of gold are speculating the price of gold will rise and the gold will be able to be sold at a profit in the future. JMHO, P