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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6757)	11/15/2011 12:41:55 PM
From: rsie	Respond to of 10065

ritholtz.com wow, seems as though europe is behind us somewhat?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6757)	11/30/2011 6:43:31 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

The post I am responding to (date 11/10) outlined what the bull case needed, in my view, for the month of November. Let's see the report card. Overall reduced market volatility at this stage. Sure, you can have a whoosh off the bottom like we did during October. But right now what the market needs is to climb a wall a wall of worry (European contagion) with small range candle bodies, few pullbacks and a march toward the yearly highs. Not happening. We need a higher high over SPX 1292.66. So far we had a lower high as we reached 1227.75 and we reversed when we became somewhat overbought on a daily basis. Overbought readings are persistent during bull moves as the market climbs a wall of worry. A loss of 47 SPX points from somewhat overbought daily readings in November does not read like a bull. Small pullbacks from extremely over bought readings are more consistent with a bull market. Didn't happen. For the month of November on a closing basis, I would like to see a closing high at 1292.66 or above to give me pause to consider the bull case. Not only is that the high for this move but there is a ton of resistance in that area built over a number of months in 2011. A move above that to close the month of December would work too under certain circumstances too. Nope. Closing basis for the month was 1246.96. The 10 month moving average keeps repelling any advance. Let's see what happens in December. Again, for this month I would like to see a closing high above 1292.66 to consider the bull case. Otherwise, this market continues to act bearishly despite all the wild swings. This is a historically bullish seasonal time for stocks. If the market can't put up some good numbers here, one has to believe there is an underlying erosion of the fundamentals longer term consistent with a recession. Worst thanksgiving week in the market since the depression? Looks like my thoughts to compare this year to the 1930s is a good idea. Market is behaving more like that time frame as opposed to the bull market from 1982 to 2000. Ideally, I think the bear case would see lower lows below the October lows by mid January though it is not necessary so long as the 10 month moving average continues to provide resistance.