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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6839)	12/1/2011 2:41:13 PM
From: rsie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

i am finding this very interesting. as i read this month's newsletter, it is time to pick sides. either you think this sucker is going up, or we are going into the "crapper" as they say in Britain.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6839)	1/4/2012 8:29:23 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Hi All: My refined approach over the past few years is to pay most of my attention to the monthly moves of the market as it eliminates so much of the noise one hears and frees up a lot of time as a result. The post I am responding to outlined what I thought the bull case needed for December. I said we would need a daily and monthly close above SPX 1292.66. This was the high of late October. What we got instead for November and December was a series of lower highs. I think it is significant that there was no rise into the end of the year and, as I mentioned in my most recent post, I think it is significant that the SPX finished flat/negative during the third year of a presidential cycle. I also think it is significant that even with a declining vix since the October highs, SPX has failed to overcome the 1292.66 level. The bears, on the other hand, have not pushed the SPX below the October low yet. With that said, in order for me to consider the bull case, I would like to see a January monthly close above 1275 with a convincing candle for the month in order to put the bulls back in the saddle. That number represents the approximate 10 month moving average for this month that has proved resistance now since October and is rolling over consistent with a bear market. I really don't care what the readers of the economy say at this point; the reaction of the market is all that matters. And so far, the reaction has been bearish. Justa