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Non-Tech : Farming -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (3034)	12/8/2011 7:09:49 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Respond to of 4441

Monsanto Co (MON) Alert: Pricing Pain for Volume Gain Succeeding; Buy 7 December 2011 ¦ 7 pages citigroupgeo.com Another Sign of Strong Momentum – Today’s 5¢ increase in 1Q guidance highlights the strength of Latin America plantings and overall improved momentum for MON. The stock underperformed the broader market today as we think investors may be disappointed that the company did not increase full year guidance as well. However, we believe management is being conservative. The company is poised to gain share in the US this year with nearly 300+ varieties of Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans and over 100 SmartStax corn hybrids in the market, and early indications are that US order book volumes have increased Y/Y. In addition, the approval of refuge-in-a-bag for SmartStax and VT Double Pro offers incremental pricing opportunities, and our channel checks indicate farmers are interested in these products. MON’s competition does not have a product portfolio which can compete across all these features, in our view. Guidance Details – MON now expects 1Q EPS of $0.15-$0.20, compared to previous guidance of $0.10-$0.15 (our estimate is $0.14 and consensus is $0.13). The primary reason for higher EPS is stronger than expected sales in Latin America. Plus, MON has benefitted from a change in cotton pricing in Australia which has accelerated sales. The company confirmed full year EPS guidance of $3.34-$3.44 (compared to our $3.50 EPS estimate).