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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NAG1 who wrote (121967)	11/14/2011 8:53:18 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 213172

I would never make the assumption that any stock in this crazy market is trading off fundamentals - it's all currency driven right now. Every 1 cent the Euro falls, the market drops 100 points and every 1 cent the Euro advances, the market gains back 100 points. Cramer is getting jacked up on cyclicals right now like CAT and XOM. He loves overpriced cyclicals with low yields and low growth. I want to see the US dollar start screaming as the Euro backs down to 1.30 again. That might bring the market below 11,700 one more time before November fades out. I think the real puke out in equities will begin in January when everything is topped out with no place to go before March. That's probably when things in Europe will get real close and personal, like they did in Q1 2009 in the US. Structurally, I think Europe is at least 3 years behind the US in terms of economic restructuring. The main difference is that Europe has done absolutely nothing to contain their problems. Maybe that will be a good thing for Europe, but probably not. There is no reason for Italy to be paying 10% of GDP just to cover their debt payments. But, that's the economic risk of being led by the ECB which rejects the responsibility of being the lender of last resort.

To: NAG1 who wrote (121967)	11/14/2011 10:26:52 PM
From: ChrisGillette	2 Recommendations Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 213172

<<I think another thing weighing on Apple's share price is the high price of an individual share. I think the share price gives a false impression that the shares are priced to perfection where in my estimation they are undervalued on a fundamental basis>> IMO Apple is pretty much priced to perfection, based not on its share price but on its enterprise value. I believe that Apple's value is the second highest in the world, second only to Exxon Mobil. On its face, this is ridiculous. Exxon generates $70 billion EBITDA per year. And because Exxon supplies a necessity product, its EBITDA should be pretty stable. Apple generates half of Exxon's EBITDA and its cash flows aren't nearly as stable. The tech industry changes very rapidly (wasn't Apple near extinction just 10 years ago?), and Apple is being chased by very aggressive, well-capitalized competitors (Google, Microsoft, etc.). On top of this, Steve Jobs--the Thomas Edison of our generation--is gone. At this point, I'm curious what you think Apple's upside is? $600 per share? To argue this is to argue that Apple should be the world's most valuable company by a very wide margin. I just don't see it. To be clear, I'm not saying that Apple's stock will crash. I just doubt that Apple will significantly outperform the market over the next few years, and I've sold calls with a $600 strike.