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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsnow who wrote (460)	11/21/1997 2:03:00 AM
From: borb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Why gold? Another 413 points gain today on Nikkei.

To: goldsnow who wrote (460)	11/26/1997 8:41:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

<<<<< Iam very bullish on Gold ...........gold at 12 year low and dropping ...........minimal bond sales by japan

To: goldsnow who wrote (460)	11/29/1997 11:18:00 AM
From: Tharos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

goldsnow, this will be a pretty fragmented and rambling response. I have a hard time accepting the "gloom and doom" doomsday scenarios of some diehard gold bulls. Someone mentioned the easiest way for Japan to come out of this mess is to simply print money. Might work out in the long run, there is already a recession, the US has already SCREWED the average long term investor by devaluing the dollar. Pump a little inflation into the picture to get the yen back to 200/$ and the whole system cranks back into export mode. We are having bank failures here, but I still find it hard to believe the Bureau of Finance will foot the bill for anything but firms whose assets exceed debts. The BOJ has gone on record as being willing to reimburse individual account holders if their bank goes under, think of it as a FDIC. The top college in Japan is Tokyo University (Todai -- short for Tokyo Daigakko). The Ministry of Finance normally gets its pick of top Todai graduates. I find it hard to believe they have not already formulated a plan and I find it hard to believe the politicians will not follow the plan. I am not privy to the plan, but -- ichi-mon oshimi no hyaku-zon (one coin saved, a hundred losses). Another possibly overlooked solution is the deregulation of the banking industry to the extent that foreign companies will be able to buy borderline banks to get an established operation and some of that valued "blue sky." Restructuring would cause a few job losses, but not nearly as many as closing the firm. It is amazing, to me anyway, that so many people are surprised that Asia ex-Japan is in trouble. The "phenomenal" growth of these countries, like that of post WW II Russia, was based upon building infrastructure, not productivity. These countries also severely regulated savings, forcing its citizens to invest only in their country. After the initial surge, a country has to rely on worker productivity to increase GDP. We are now at that stage of the cycle in the Asian Tigers. Meanwhile, in the quest for ever higher ROE, the west and Japan pumped billions into the economies and unrealistically drove up equity prices. People in these countries took advantage of the new found wealth and leveraged it. The Hang Sen was pumped on the dream of billions of Chinese buying products from the companies on its index. The problem with the dream is it overlooked the fact that most Chinese are peasants. The HS drops 50% and the average stock P/E falls from heaven to nose-bleed levels. People who lent money based on unrealistic land prices are now in jeopardy. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Maybe the best thing for Japan is to have its banks go out of business. Enough rambling, hope it was coherent enough to get a few ideas. I'm not saying you're wrong, just presenting a contrary opinion.