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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seth Leyton who wrote (6076)	11/20/1997 3:42:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42804

MRVC: Continues To Lead The Price Performance Curve Info from Bear Stearns (BEST) BEST says MRVC is gaining Market Share and they reiterate their Buy Rating. RE The NH2024: BEST says that the NH 2024 has been shipping to major customers and will be generally available through distributors including Tech Data on December 1. BEST views the NH 2024 as a very competitive offering, as similar switching products by Bay Networks and 3Com are selling for $250 and $290 per port respectively. BEST says CSCO, which dominates the high end, sells a similar product at an even higher price per port. BEST comments that IDC recently released its latest market share survey in switching for first-half 1997, and that MRV's Nbase switching division increased its market share in the high-growth workgroup switching segment from 3.8% in 1996 to 4.6% in first-half 1997, an impressive 21% gain in six months. BEST adds that more importantly, this is the first time a major market research firm such as IDC includes MRV(NBase) in its survey. BEST says that they believe this reflects the rising visibility of MRV among customers and industry analysts, which could eventually raise the company's visibility among investors. BEST says they believe MRV has the broadest product offerings in the 10/100 autosensing workgroup switching segment, an area which could grow to $4.3 billion in revenues in 2001 from less than $100 million in 1996, a 95% CAGR. Consequently, BEST thinks that MRVC can achieve both revenue and EPS growth of 40-50% over the next three years. BEST believes that MRVC's business conditions remain strong and the company continues to enjoy robust demand for its products, particularly in switching. BEST adds that moreover, demand in Europe seems to be strong and the company sees no slowdown in Asia despite the uncertain economic conditions in the region. BEST comments that at 20x their 1998 EPS estimate of $1.25, MRVC shares appear very undervalued and should provide significant return to investors over the next 12 months. They maintain their estimates and reiterate their Buy rating on MRV stock.

To: Seth Leyton who wrote (6076)	11/20/1997 11:06:00 PM
From: Stu Bishop	Respond to of 42804

Seth and gang, Don't be too upset over the recent doldrums. As we all know, companies such as MRVC, the second (or third) tier as far as the "market" is concerned, are much more volatile than the overall market. However, if you look at the chart, back to October of 96, you'll notice an encouraging trend. After the obscene runup that occured in May of 96, the stock fell significantly, but has been better behaved since, as volatile tech stocks go. The stock has been below its 200 day moving average four times including now. If you count the double dip in March and April 97 as one, then it's only three times. Each time the stock has gone below its 200 day moving average, it waited for the 50 day moving average to fall to the 200 day, then rallied. Also, each of these lows have been ascending. In 11/96 we hit $17, then in 3/97 we hit $19, and recently we hit $23.5. Better still, the highs in between the lows are ascending as well. Furthermore, if the 50 day MA continues it current course, it should meet the 200 day within the next month or so. If the trend repeats, then we should rally to $45-50 in the 3-6 months that follow. Note that I'm not being terribly specific in my predictions. But the general trend seems to be in place: big rallies followed by retrenchment, followed by ........ No problem that patience won't cure. Stu B.