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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sergio H who wrote (45672)11/27/2011 3:54:32 PM
From: Ditchdigger  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78526
 
There is also HEK as a frac fluid play. Not sure if it was mentioned.
ditch
finance.yahoo.com

(hadn't followed FTK in a long time, were'nt they doing a merger with Allis or such?)

(there is also a scary penny ESPH.ob--stay away!, I've followed this one for years as a diversion, the yahoo board is a stitch<g>)



To: Sergio H who wrote (45672)11/27/2011 5:15:19 PM
From: E_K_S1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78526
 
Is there a Value Opportunity for different services in the growing domestic shale sector? Here are some value companies I have on my watch list. The value opportunity might be in the rail transportation and/or service to that sector.

GATX Corp. (GMT) - good value candidate but perhaps too much Europe & India exposure
Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) - Value candidate reasonable PE @ 13.24 good debt profile
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) - Value candidate PE @ 14.5 excellent debt profile
US Ecology, Inc. (ECOL) - 80 company owned rail cars valued at $17M (25% of BV) could possibly provide environmental services if/when EPA require "clean" effluent standards. - Possible Value Buy
CARBO Ceramics Inc. (CRR) - Speculative "pure" play providing well development/environmental services. High PE, high margins - Not in my Value zone.

I recently sold my GMT that I bought for their Oil and NG railcar lease services. They provide both NG and Oil cars some 167K cars that are leased to large customers in North America, Europe & India. This is a very profitable business and GMT is indeed a value proposition w/ a 14.5 Forward PE, 3.1% dividend and selling 1.5x book. The negative is they have a lot of debt. My last buy was 2/2011 @ $34.40/share and I closed the position out 7/2011 @ 38.26/share. Until the Euro situation is resolved, I am holding off on any buys. Stock sold down to $13.50/share in the 2008/2009 crash. Another Europe crash event could provide an excellent entry point.

I was attracted to GATX because they provide NG equipment leasing through their Enerven Compression JV. From their Web Site :"... We offer leases both directly and through our Enerven Compression LLC (Enerven) joint venture, which was founded in 2008. Enerven provides natural gas compression equipment leasing through its subsidiary, Enerven Compression Services (ECS), and third-party maintenance and repair services through its subsidiary Worldwide Energy Solutions Co. (WESCO). ...".



They lease LNG & Oil rail cars. Below is one of their LNG railcars.



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Buffet through his acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe gets a lot of activity moving both Oil and LNG rail cars. These are the rail companies on my watch list: UNP (PE=15.26), CNI (PE=14.42), CSX (PE=12.49) , NSC (PE=13.74) & CP (PE=16.73).

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) has an excellent debt profile w/ only 3.87x net annual income /LT debt coverage, have service routes through the Southeast and Midwest and connections to both the Atlantic and Gulf ports. This is my top pick for the U.S. rails. It's expensive on a BV basis selling at 2.3X BV. NSC operates at 28.4% operating margins which is inline with the other U.S. carriers.

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) is my top Canadian rail pick, They operate track that spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico. They have higher operating margins (almost 10% higher) than the U.S. operators. They have the best LT Debt profile I have seen of the group w/ annual net earnings to LT debt at 2.7X. Their EPS growth estimates over 5 years are 2x higher than NSC at 10%.

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Therefore, if you see rail as an important component servicing the new domestic shale wells for transporting fracking effluent, captured "flared" compressed NG, moving OIL & NG that can not be transported through limited pipelines (the cost is $10/barrel more to move by rail than through pipelines), or even moving well supplies (ie pipes & casings, equipment, workers food etc) , then NSC and/or CNI my be the best value picks.

FWIW CARBO Ceramics Inc. (CRR) is already up 400% from 2009 and IMO their growth does not support their high PE. There could be other solutions that emerge that could make their products less useful. This is a "pure" play on hydraulic fracking but you pay 26PE for a possible 32% growth (YoY). Definitely not a value proposition and one I will pass on.

EKS