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Technology Stocks : RAMBUS: Time to Short RMBS? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott Maxwell who wrote (52)	11/20/1997 8:25:00 PM
From: John Wallner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58

Hello Scott, So far, my predictions have all come true. And I continue to think that the stock will fall below 30 by the end of 1998. (Which, by the way, is not too far off from it's near-term low in the 30's.) When the stock was in the 80's, I started this thread by noting that the P/E was too high, and it was a good time to short. I was correct. (see the opening post of this thread.) Before the first shares were unlocked, I predicted the price would drop when it happened, and I was right. (see post #11 from this thread). Before the end of the 180-day lockup, I predicted that the price would fall again, and I was correct again. (See post #14 and #32 from this thread.) I also predicted that with downard price pressure resulting from the end of the lockout period, the underwriters would respond and work to bolster the stock price. (See post #11 from this thread.) I expected a press release of this type earlier than this, but I was nontheless correct again. The same thing happened to Xylan, Forte, and Netscape, all high-flying high-tech IPO's taken public by Morgan Stanley. At the end of their 180-day lockout, the underwriters took steps to bolster confidence in the stock, which led to an increase in price. The price increases have not lasted, however. Others in this thread, and in the main thread, have commented on the same phenomena. For what it's worth, this sharp one-day increase in price surprised me, although I WAS NOT surprised that the underwriters took action to bolster the stock price. As far as my "tone of authority with no reasoned argument or evidence", I'm afraid I must disagree with you: I have always pointed to the outrageous P/E as the evidence that the stock is overvalued. Nothing in this message should be construed as an allegation of misconduct or illegality on the part of the underwriters; everything I write is my opinion only. Sincerely, John Wallner