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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (12362)	12/12/2011 8:34:35 AM
From: Dennis Roth	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) 2012 Guidance Call Preview; Big Projects Drive Big Range 11 December 2011 ¦ 11 pages ir.citi.com Guidance call; big range, but likely conservative — FSLR provides 2012 guidance pre-open Wednesday 12/14. This is the 5th year providing full-year revs guide and 3rd year providing EPS. While it has typically tended to “thread the needle” (see table), we see risk slightly more skewed to the downside this time given the myriad of model variables, the desire to avoid a repeat of 2011 (the first year it missed), some challenges in the EPC biz, and a likely desire to maintain low bar for an incoming CEO.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (12362)	12/14/2011 9:58:37 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16955

FSLR 2012 guidance: module efficiency averaging 12.6% (vs. 11.8% 3Q11) 2GW production; 80% capacity utilization 0.72$/w module manufacturing costs, which would be 0.67$/w if they were running at 100% capacity utilization. 2011 average costs were 0.74$/w, so cost reductions will be unimpressive. They will have to do a lot better, in 2013 and 2014, or they will miss their goals. 0.87$/w BOS cost, down from 0.98$/w in 2011. They have been doing better at reducing BOS costs, and expect to continue to do so. 3.7-4B rev 4$ EPS, a shocking downward revision over half of sales in N.America, which replaces Europe as main sales area; almost no sales in China FSLR 3-year plan: 1. specialize in utility-scale complete Systems. This implies ceding the roof-top market to c-Si, especially SPWR. 2. reducing manufacturing costs, to be competitive without subsidies by end-2014. This is the biggest challenge. Their new 2015 goal is 0.50-0.54$/w module cost + 0.70-0.75$/w BOS cost = 1.20-1.29$/w total manufacturing cost. For 2011, costs are 0.74 + 0.98 = 1.72$/w 3. management will focus on achieving this LT plan. This implies less focus on achieving quarterly results. 4. focus on "open, transparent markets"; I think this means mainly the U.S., and the developing world, but probably not China. Longterm business model: 15-20% gross margin (was 46% in 2010, 54% in 2008) rev growth 5-10%/y (= much slower growth) LCOE 0.10-0.14$/wh no subsidies files.shareholder.com seekingalpha.com The company announced the layoff of a 100 researchers, some 1.5% of its workforce. The team was working on the new copper-indium-gallium-selenide technology, a project which now has been completely abandoned. seekingalpha.com Predicting less-than-full capacity utilization for the low-cost producer, implies supply will continue to exceed demand, through 2012. The market's response is another huge selloff: