To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (161022 ) 10/10/2014 5:50:56 PM From: Jacob Snyder 3 RecommendationsRecommended By Bruce L CommanderCricket Jim P.
Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206100 Time to buy. Reasons: 1. S&P500 touching 200dma for the first time in 2 years. This level is also the August low. 2. VIX hitting high for the year. 3. Oil (wtic) approaching the bottom of $80-110 range, where it has been since late 2010. $80 is about the level where capex budgets for tar sands, deepwater, fraccing start to get cut. Therefore, any dip below $80 is temporary. My favorite is SU (Canadian tar sands). Reasons: 1. It's a leveraged bet on the price of oil. 2. Well-managed, investor-friendly, with a commitment to dividends and stock buy-backs. 3. Buffett bought SU in the $27-36 range (now at $33). 4. Resource nationalism risk is zero. This is the biggest risk for any mining or energy company. 5. Unlike virtually any other big oil company, they can expand production indefinitely on land they already own. 6. SU has been in a $26-43 range since mid-2009. Buying near the bottom of that range looks safe. 7. If Keystone isn't built, then an all-Canada pipeline to the Pacific or Atlantic will happen. Economic imperatives will trump politics.......eventually. I predict the next civil war which shuts down oil production in Iran (or Nigeria or Venezuela or Mexico or.......) will result in a pipeline from Alberta to a coast being approved and built. After diddling for years, everyone will suddenly be saying, "We need this built yesterday." disclosure: no current position; I have an order placed to begin buying at $30, double up at $27, and I'll buy more in increments as low as it goes. If the S&P500 bounces at the 200dma, I'll buy immediately.