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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (6853)	12/18/2011 5:23:03 PM
From: gronieel2	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10065

A Peek Inside ECRI's Black Box To summarize: all of the above information grows out of the work of Prof. Geoffrey Moore, and/or interviews or statements that Lakshman Achuthan has made at one point or another. It represents a best guess as to what at least some of the data in their black box is showing ECRI. You can see that, taken together, it makes a very powerful bearish case for the onset of recession at some point probably no later than Q2 2012. Am I persuaded? Not yet. Housing permits have indeed been in a small uptrend for the last 10 months, and car sales in a strong one for the last five. The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index also continues to be in a small but definite uptrend. Consumer confidence is improving. Initial jobless claims are decreasing. YoY money supply, both M1 and M2, are also strongly positive. Manufacturing employment remains slightly positive. Even more importantly, the decline in commodity prices, particularly oil, while showing weakness in Europe and Asia, is a boon to American consumers. *In short, three months after ECRI's recession call, I don't yet see weakness crossing either the Atlantic or the Pacific sufficiently to create a recession here.* seekingalpha.com