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Non-Tech : Amati investors -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pat mudge who wrote (29146)11/20/1997 11:43:00 PM
From: Michael F. Donadio  Respond to of 31386
 
<<<Just my take and I could be way out in left field.>>>

No Pat. You are anything but out in left field. Your stock analysis is right on the money.

I think you're brilliant, but most of us knew that already. The only good thing about Amati's demise is that I may finally be released from my incredible fascination with this company.

Michael

P.S. I'm trying to provide some of the human drama for your Amati novella.



To: pat mudge who wrote (29146)11/21/1997 7:45:00 AM
From: Jon I. Brolliar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31386
 
Pat, if this has been addressed since the TI news I apoligize. Should we here from another bidder fairly soon (By maybe Monday or Tuesday of next week) if there is one. I would think that they would have to act within a week or so as fast as TI is moving on this. Just wondering. JB



To: pat mudge who wrote (29146)11/21/1997 2:12:00 PM
From: bmattie  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31386
 
[WSTL TI] Maybe WSTL is a good play.

From the TI FAQ.


9. Does this mean TI is getting back into the modems business? Is this a change in your strategy of focusing on semiconductors?

No, in fact, this acquisition will strengthen our focus on DSP solutions by giving TI additional resources (software and systems knowledge) for future DSP applications as well as an enhanced IP position. We do not intend to pursue the end equipment market, but applications of DSP technology in chips and chip sets.


If TI is not going to make "end equipment" and they have an agreement
with WSTL wouldn't WSTL be in a good position to sell the ADSL modems?



To: pat mudge who wrote (29146)11/22/1997 11:45:00 AM
From: Charlie Smith  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31386
 
Pat:

Excellent analysis of risk/reward. There are obviously many aspects to the concept of risk, depending on your time horizon, leverage, tax rate etc..

I'd like to welcome you as a TI shareholder. I've owned it since October of 93, and I think you'll be pleased with their fine portfolio of businesses and their recent aggressive focus on what I call the "ready mix" of the information superhighway: DSPs. If you haven't already, check out the TI thread on SI. We've got some sharp folks over there, though not quite as many as here on the AMTX thread.

Some random thoughts on xDSL, AMTX, the RBOCs etc.:

1. The entire xDSL "industry" (such as it is) remains hostage to the decisions of the RBOCs. Somebody else said AMTX and the others got "caught on a protracted time line" and I think that is right on the mark. CLECs can't make any money reselling as long as the states control the rules, so their solution is to BUILD in the places where they think they can make money soonest. This takes time. As a result the RBOCs can afford to sit back and avoid cannabalizing their T-1 service. Given the pace of change thus far, whoever said that xDSL was a Y2K phenomenon may be right. The ISPs are trying to accelerate the process, but by and large their access to capital is limited. The protracted nature of this process is what created the risk in the xDSL companies. This slow pace may also be why MOT doesn't seem to be in any hurry.

2. WSTL will have trouble maintaining an exclusive with TI as xDSL technology evolves for this same reason. WSTL is item 8 on a 10 item RBOC agenda. Therefore the "half life" of their relationships with the RBOCs is a big issue going forward.

3. On the conference call with Seamans, someone asked why WSTL "let it (AMTX) go". Simple: WSTL cannot compete with TI on price, and had to grab whatever it could.

4. JAVA apps exist because of the last mile bottleneck. The longer it lasts, the better JAVA does. Bill Gates hopes (partly) to put the brakes on JAVA by opening up the pipelines via cable modems. If only the RBOCs had the same sort of motivation!

Hope to see you soon on the TI thread!

Best regards,
Charlie

P.S. I was the guy who said that WSTL bought AMTX purely for DMT IP. I still believe it.