To: Brumar89 who wrote (462395 ) 12/29/2011 11:57:07 AM From: Glenn Petersen 2 Recommendations Respond to of 794357 Ron Paul took his presidential bid all the way to the convention in 2008 and actually got 21 votes for the nomination. I expect him to do the same in 2012, which would make it very difficult for him to find a third party ticket to run on. The most logical platform for Paul would be the Libertarian ticket. Gary Johnson has already announced that he is going to seek the Libertarian nomination. Go Larry. If Romney locks up the nomination early, it would be a smart move for him to offer Paul a speaking slot at the convention. As others have already pointed out, a third party run would hurt the long term prospects for his son. From Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball: The Libertarians’ small presidential impact Now that ex-New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has announced his candidacy for the Libertarian Party’s nomination in 2012, we wondered: How has the Libertarian Party performed in presidential elections? The answer: Not particularly well. Founded in 1971, the Libertarian Party ran its first presidential candidate, John Hospers, in 1972. It has run a candidate in every race since then and bills itself as the “third largest political party in the United States.” In terms of success in presidential elections, the party’s apex was 1980, when Ed Clark managed to win 1.1% of the popular vote; he remains the only Libertarian candidate to poll above 1%. Interestingly, the party did receive an electoral vote in 1972 when Virginia elector and eventual 1976 Libertarian nominee Roger MacBride proved to be a faithless elector by casting his electoral vote for Hospers instead of Richard Nixon. Chart 1: Libertarian Party vote percentage in presidential elections, 1972-2008 Source : CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections Volume 1, Sixth Edition (CQ Press) Given its lack of success in presidential elections, it is tough to say how much of an effect the former governor’s candidacy could have on the election in 2012. Of course, Johnson has to win the party’s nomination first. The party would also be interested in having Rep. Ron Paul or former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura run under its banner. A Paul run would certainly impact the 2012 election; having run as the Libertarian candidate in 1988, the Texas congressman could do so again. He could also launch an independent bid in an effort to expand his targeted electorate. If Paul ran as an independent, he would garner much of the vote Johnson (or whoever is the Libertarian nominee) could expect to win otherwise. – Geoffrey Skelley centerforpolitics.org