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To: Brumar89 who wrote (462395)12/28/2011 12:36:07 PM
From: Alan Smithee  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 794357
 
I'd be interested to listen in on what Ron Paul and Rand Paul talk about at family gatherings. Wonder of Rand thinks of his dad as the family's "crazy uncle."

If Paul ran as a third party candidate, I'm not sure who it would hurt worse. He'd pull off the crazies from both sides, lots of people who voted for Obama last time and are disgusted would go to Paul.



To: Brumar89 who wrote (462395)12/28/2011 12:37:05 PM
From: Stan1 Recommendation  Respond to of 794357
 
He'd pull off the crazies from both sides

Good point.



To: Brumar89 who wrote (462395)12/28/2011 12:47:16 PM
From: DMaA1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 794357
 
Gingrich is saying that there are things more important than electing a Republican. That is a pretty profound statement coming from Mr. Republican.



To: Brumar89 who wrote (462395)12/28/2011 8:14:42 PM
From: KLP3 Recommendations  Respond to of 794357
 
Anyone who would endorse Cynthia McKinney is no friend of conservative or moderate Republicans.....

Last election, Ron Paul endorsed four minor party candidates, including Cynthia McKinney



To: Brumar89 who wrote (462395)12/29/2011 11:57:07 AM
From: Glenn Petersen2 Recommendations  Respond to of 794357
 
Ron Paul took his presidential bid all the way to the convention in 2008 and actually got 21 votes for the nomination. I expect him to do the same in 2012, which would make it very difficult for him to find a third party ticket to run on. The most logical platform for Paul would be the Libertarian ticket. Gary Johnson has already announced that he is going to seek the Libertarian nomination. Go Larry. If Romney locks up the nomination early, it would be a smart move for him to offer Paul a speaking slot at the convention.

As others have already pointed out, a third party run would hurt the long term prospects for his son.

From Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:

The Libertarians’ small presidential impact

Now that ex-New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson has announced his candidacy for the Libertarian Party’s nomination in 2012, we wondered: How has the Libertarian Party performed in presidential elections? The answer: Not particularly well.

Founded in 1971, the Libertarian Party ran its first presidential candidate, John Hospers, in 1972. It has run a candidate in every race since then and bills itself as the “third largest political party in the United States.” In terms of success in presidential elections, the party’s apex was 1980, when Ed Clark managed to win 1.1% of the popular vote; he remains the only Libertarian candidate to poll above 1%.

Interestingly, the party did receive an electoral vote in 1972 when Virginia elector and eventual 1976 Libertarian nominee Roger MacBride proved to be a faithless elector by casting his electoral vote for Hospers instead of Richard Nixon.

Chart 1: Libertarian Party vote percentage in presidential elections, 1972-2008



Source: CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections Volume 1, Sixth Edition (CQ Press)

Given its lack of success in presidential elections, it is tough to say how much of an effect the former governor’s candidacy could have on the election in 2012. Of course, Johnson has to win the party’s nomination first. The party would also be interested in having Rep. Ron Paul or former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura run under its banner. A Paul run would certainly impact the 2012 election; having run as the Libertarian candidate in 1988, the Texas congressman could do so again. He could also launch an independent bid in an effort to expand his targeted electorate. If Paul ran as an independent, he would garner much of the vote Johnson (or whoever is the Libertarian nominee) could expect to win otherwise.

Geoffrey Skelley

centerforpolitics.org