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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: still learning who wrote (4233)	11/21/1997 12:33:00 PM
From: seminole	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

S.L. <<<I repeat: sometimes stocks do not trade strictly on straight PE basis.>>> This is an important point that has been lost by many over the last few weeks. While next quarters or years projected earnings are an important signal of future prospects for a company, the present value of a company is determined by all future cash flows over all future years (not just next years cash flows). richard

To: still learning who wrote (4233)	11/21/1997 4:27:00 PM
From: jelrod3	Respond to of 7841

Thanks for your post. I agree that it is not likely that SEG will trade to $7.50. I do, however, believe that SEG may trade to book value or slightly below book value, as it has done in the past on several occasions. Severely reduced estimates followed yet again by further cuts or reductions tend to produce moves in this direction, and the move is often not that abrupt in a stock like SEG that has already suffered a large loss in share price. The continued loss in share price can be like "water torture," i.e., a drip at a time. Watching what buyers are willing to pay for these reduced earnings estimates can also provide info about the "bottom." A change in the trend of this multiple usually precedes, and thus heralds, an upward revision in estimated earnings.The smart money always gets in before most others have time to detect this subtle shift. I'm not a timer, but have been cut by falling knives or more than one occasion, so I'm not a buyer of SEG at these levels. And I'm sorry to say that I don't believe all the bad news is out there yet for SEG, nor do I believe that the cuts in earnings estimates are over. But the day will come when I'll buy SEG and double or triple my money without too much effort...and this "windfall" will be powered by revised upside earnings estimates.